Senior Saudi analyst Abdulrahman al-Rashed claims in a column in al-Arabiya that there is no chance that Hezbollah will get involved in the fighting and open a declared front in the north and adds that Hamas "won't free Palestine with paragliders."
"I see a resemblance between this war and the Beirut War of 1982 when Ariel Sharon invaded Lebanon after the attempted assassination of the Israeli ambassador in London. Ironically, the perpetrator was from the Abu Nidal group, albeit the blame was pinned on Damascus. But it was the Palestinian Liberation Organization that paid the price, forced by the Israelis to leave Lebanon and relocate to Tunisia, Sudan, and Yemen. To all intents and purposes, Fatah ended as an armed struggle movement.
He explained: "Israeli operations and statements indicate it intends to get rid of the organization and the majority of Hamas militants, including expelling them from the Gaza Strip via Egypt. To the north, Hezbollah is unlikely to become involved in the war because that would mean the return of the Israeli army to southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is aware that the destruction of its military power would weaken it in Syria, which has become more important to the group militarily and politically, and may culminate in losing its unrivaled hegemony over Lebanon itself.
Al-Rashed claimed that the most important question still stands and explained: "Once again, we pose the question: Why did Hamas carry out this massive attack, or as some call it 'Israel's 9/11'? Is it a mass suicide or a decisive response to the power balance impasse? Al-Qaeda, after its attacks, turned its members from an organization governing the state of Afghanistan to living in caves, and Bin Laden ended up hiding in Pakistan while his children hid out in Iran. But al-Qaeda is different from Hamas. The former was pursuing a caliphate project, a mere historical fantasy that has no place in modern times, whereas the Palestinian project is genuine and holds great hope."
Al-Rashed concludes his column, stating that "Hamas chose this path, and Israel decided to change the reality in Gaza by force and put an end to Hamas. Both sides will not be able to decisively resolve the conflict; Hamas will not free Palestine with its paragliders, nor will Netanyahu eliminate the Palestinians’ resolve to establish their own state."