Art is, to paraphrase Gottfried Benn, the opposite of well-meaning intentions. This statement applies particularly to statecraft. The gap between well-intentioned diplomacy and its often ineffective, even counterproductive effects is especially clear in European Middle East policy.
One hears the same old phrases repeated endlessly: “It is the Israeli occupation that prevents a two-state solution,” and, “The establishment of a Palestinian Arab state within the borders of 1967 is the only way to peace.” However, the President of France appears to have forgotten that during its terrorist attack, Hamas killed over 1,000 civilians, including 42 French citizens.
The attempt to create a peace solution for the Middle East is, for decades, a constant struggle to square the circle. One seeks to make diplomatic progress while simultaneously filling the power vacuum left by the Americans after their withdrawal from Iraq. Yet, for the Europeans, the military legacy is clearly too large to handle.
Some may wonder where the problem lies. As of October 7, 2023, 147 of the 193 UN member states had already diplomatically recognized a state of Palestine. Almost all of these countries maintain relationships with the Palestinian Authority in Ramallah, even those which do not officially recognize its statehood. Some, like Qatar and Iran, have even allied themselves with Hamas. Without external financial support, Hamas's rule in Gaza would have collapsed long ago.
The reality of international politics is that the recognition of the de facto non-existent state of "Palestine" serves as a means to retaliate against Israel. Hardly any diplomatic step has provoked the Israeli government as much as this one. Now, French President Emmanuel Macron has joined the supposed path of virtue and announced this step for June.
One wonders what has motivated Macron. The situation following the barbaric massacre by Hamas on October 7, 2023, and the subsequent Israeli military campaign against the terror group in Gaza is more dire than it was before. It cannot have escaped Macron's attention that just now, innovative ideas and new impulses are needed to improve the lives of people in Palestinian Authority territories and Israel, and to actually achieve political progress.
Instead, Macron seems to prefer reaching into the mothballs of Middle East diplomacy. The recognition of a Palestinian Arab state by France will lead to nothing meaningful but will also harm the cause.
Since repeated attacks and a decades-long campaign of terror did not yield the desired success, the Palestine Liberation Organization, under Yasser Arafat, proclaimed a State of Palestine in 1988 and subsequently focused on diplomacy, which led to the Oslo Accords of 1993. These were an attempt to create a framework aimed at resolving the ongoing conflict. The Israeli government virtually offered the Palestinian Arabs their own state, encompassing the "West Bank" (aka Judea and Samaria) and Gaza, under terms that today seem unthinkable. A historic compromise appeared within reach. However, Arafat ultimately could not bring himself to sign the agreement.
The subsequent Second Intifada from 2000 to 2005 was a cold shower for the Israelis. It involved a brutal bombing campaign against civilian life and was carried out by Palestinian Arab terrorist organizations like Fatah, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. More than 1,000 fatalities and several thousand injuries were reported on the Israeli side. To fend off suicide attackers, the Jewish state responded with heavy policing and constructed a massive separation wall along the "West Bank". The events inflicted deep wounds on both sides.
The history of the Middle East conflict since 1948 teaches that the Palestinian Arabs’ primary concern has never been statehood and independence. The main focus has always been the struggle against the existence of Israel and indeed the destruction of the Jewish state, a goal openly declared in their charter by the terrorist organization Hamas.
In the West, many refuse to acknowledge this. They turn a blind eye when Hamas and Hezbollah once again sound the alarm. It is clear that for the radical Palestinian Arab political class, it is advantageous to maintain the unfavorable status quo for their own population through ideological incitement.
Renouncing terror
Europeans dream up a state that hardly meets any criteria of statehood. Macron’s initiative, which requires no political concessions in return, only strengthens the radicals. No wonder that the weakened Hamas rejoiced at the news from Paris.
It is suspected that Macron's tilt towards the Middle East is a reaction to France's waning influence in North Africa, where the former colonial power has been repeatedly shown the door. Paris’s decades-long one-sided post-colonial policy, which prioritized resource extraction over the development of infrastructure and civil society, has led to deep-rooted poverty and government crises in Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, Senegal, and Côte d'Ivoire.
Like the Europeans, Macron finds no new recipes in the conflict. Despite the clear unwillingness of the weakened radical Palestinian Arabs to finally renounce rocket, bomb, and knife terror, the EU wants to pump money into a situation that offers hardly any future prospects. In the next three years, €1.6 billion is slated to flow to Gaza and the "West Bank". Furthermore, the heavily contested UN relief organization UNRWA, criticized for its collaboration with and undermining by Hamas, will continue to receive European funds, while Hamas has recently managed to stay afloat thanks to black market trading in stolen aid supplies.
The failure of Western policy became evident, at the latest, on October 7, 2023. It marks a turning point and leads to only one conclusion: violence can no longer be considered a legitimate political means in this conflict. Those in Europe who genuinely want to help the Palestinian Arabs must question their (self-destructive, anti-Israeli) thought patterns, as well as the institutions that adopt, promote, and maintain them.
All of this requires imagination, courage, and stronger involvement of neighboring Arab countries and Israel. The proposals made by U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a glorious reconstruction of Gaza in the absence of its population do not have to be endorsed or considered feasible. However, Trump's disruptive policy enabled the Abraham Accords five years ago, which remain one of the few political bright spots in the Middle East today. To gain control over the dire situation surrounding "Palestine", it is necessary to thoroughly understand the events of October 7, 2023, and their dire consequences, and to utilize them for fresh ideas, rather than simply continuing as before.
Oliver Rolofs - is a security expert and director of the Austrian Institute for Strategic Studies and International Cooperation in Vienna. The article was published in Neue Zürcher Zeitung
