The modern Muslim world finds itself trapped between nostalgia and rage. Its cultural confidence has eroded, its political regimes are brittle or brutal, and its youth are restless. For decades, much of the blame for these internal failures has been outsourced — to European colonialism, to American imperialism, and most consistently, to Zionism. Israel has been framed as the original sin of the modern Middle East, a wound that if only healed, would usher in a renaissance for the Muslim world.
This is a seductive myth — and a dangerous one. The truth is far more sobering: the downfall of Zionism and the destruction of Israel would not bring renewal to the Muslim world. On the contrary, it would accelerate the descent of the Ummah into a deeper moral and civilizational abyss. It would destroy one of the last remaining illusions that prevent Islam from confronting its own failures — and in doing so, it would expose the hollow core of modern Islamic revivalism. The end of Israel would not herald a golden Islamic dawn, but a catastrophic Islamic reckoning.
For over seventy years, Arab leaders and Islamic apologists have used Zionism as a convenient scapegoat for the dysfunctions of their societies. Theocracy, tyranny, corruption, and sectarian violence have all been blamed on the "Zionist entity" and its Western backers. But this narrative only works as long as Israel exists. If Zionism were to be “defeated” and Israel annihilated, the vacuum of accountability would be exposed.
Who would be blamed when women remain oppressed, economies remain stagnant, and sectarian militias still terrorize civilians? If there is no Jewish state to hate, what happens to the rage?
Far from liberating the region, the fall of Israel would embolden its worst elements. If Hamas and its allies were to raise their banners over Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, it would represent a total victory for the most regressive forces in the Islamic world. The message would be clear: extremism works. Theocratic violence triumphs. In the aftermath, Christians, secular thinkers, women, LGBTQ individuals, and religious minorities such as Ahmadis, Yazidis, and Baha'is would not be liberated — they would be hunted.
The fall of Israel would be a green light for jihadists from Casablanca to Karachi to intensify their war not just on Jews, but on modernity itself.
This would not go unnoticed in the West. A conquered and ruined Tel Aviv — once a beacon of liberal, pluralistic life in the Middle East — would send a shiver down the spine of Europe and North America. People in Paris and Berlin, in Toronto and New York, would see the destroyed Israeli cities as omens of their own future. They would draw a straight line from the Islamist victory in Jerusalem to the Islamization of their own societies. The prophecy of multicultural harmony would be replaced with the nightmare of religious supremacism. And with it, the politics of the West would shift.
The far-right would seize the moment. The fall of Israel would not only vindicate their fears — it would galvanize their cause. They would point to the fate of Jerusalem and Haifa as warnings: this is what happens when you let Islam grow unchecked. Campaigns to ban mosques, outlaw the Quran, and deport Muslim communities would find fertile ground. The anti-immigrant violence seen in the UK in 2024 would be only the beginning. Europe’s tragic history of expelling minorities could easily repeat itself, this time with Muslims as the target.
Meanwhile, the Muslim world would not find salvation — only deeper humiliation. The “liberation” of "Palestine" would empower jihadists and tyrants, not reformers or thinkers. With immigration increasingly restricted, millions of poor and frustrated Muslims would remain trapped in broken societies with failing economies and no scapegoat left to blame. At the same time, Jewish refugees from Israel would, despite their trauma, rebuild new lives and thrive wherever they go — just as they did after the expulsions from Arab lands in the 20th century. Their success would be a painful mirror for the Muslim world.
Eventually, even the average Muslim will begin to see the pattern. If every civilization that embraces Islamic orthodoxy stagnates, while every society that expels or marginalizes it prospers, a dangerous and painful conclusion will begin to take root: that the crisis of the Ummah is not caused by outsiders, but by Islam itself — not by a misinterpretation of the faith, but by its core teachings and worldview.
The fall of Israel would thus remove the final illusion. Without Zionism to blame, Islam would have to face its own reflection — and the image would be too stark to deny. The tragedy of this scenario is not just the destruction of a modern, democratic state, but the implosion of a civilization unwilling to reform itself. And that is why the downfall of Zionism would not signal a Muslim revival, but the final disintegration of the Ummah's moral authority — and quite inevitably of Islam itself.
Rafael Castro is a graduate of Yale and Hebrew University. An Italian Noahide by choice, Rafael can be reached at rafaelcastro78@gmail.com
