Middle East expert Dr. David Wurmser of the Misgav Institute joined Arutz Sheva and Israel365's special coverage of the beginning of the second Trump Administration to discuss his expectations from the new administration's Middle East policy.
Starting off on a positive note, Wurmser says: "I think the President is definitely focused on the threat of Iran, and ultimately the Iran threat has not been fully removed by Israel, the job's not fully done. So I look to the administration at least strongly supporting Israel in any way possible to deal with the Iranian threat. I don't necessarily believe that would mean that the Americans would attack Iran. It would mean the Americans would impose strong sanctions to support Israel's attack on Iran."
He notes that while Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Houthis have been weakened, they still exist, and being that they are Iranian proxies, he expects Trump to support Israel's fight against them.
"I think the Iranian element is on its way out. The Israelis, along with the US, are really aiming to get rid of the regime, not only stop its nuclear program," he adds.
What does worry Wurmser is the rising threat of Turkey, the Muslim Brotherhood, Islamists, and others. In this regard, he highlights three camps within the new administration: "One is the camp that we've all known about for about half a year, that's the 'Tucker Carlson camp' which is more oriented to resisting supporting Israel because they believe that it can entangle the US in another endless war. There is an antisemitic tinge to it when you get to people like Candace Owens or General Macgregor."
Another camp that could be problematic for Israel according to Wurmser is what he calls "the Witkoff camp, which has business interests in the Middle East, they've dealt with the Middle East. But they haven't dealt with the Middle East as real Middle East hands and as a result, I think they're entering into this somewhat naive and conflicted and they're putting too much of a premium on just shutting things down. The nation still needs to get work done, but Israel is under pressure to shut things down. They don't particularly see Turkey as a threat either, because they're in very close contact with Qatar and they tend to take Qatar's vision of the region, which in my opinion is very inimical to Israel and the US, very seriously."
The third camp he says is the pro-Israel one, comprised of religious Christians among other groups. That camp is concerned about Islam, they want to put the Muslim Brotherhood on the list of terror groups and are suspicious of Turkey and Qatar. According to Wurmser, "On balance, the last camp will take over."
He says that the first weeks will "be a bit of a rough ride. Israel has to carefully work with the President to make sure that what the third camp and Israel see as important gets engrained in policy going forward."
Regarding plans to expand the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia, Dr. Wurmser expresses some worry: "Remember, the Saudis hate Qatar, so the Qataris are going to try to push to keep the Saudis away and if they do allow the Saudis to be involved they will try to rope into their agenda which is the Muslim Brotherhood, which is Hamas being saved."
He notes that "Hamas is not just a proxy of Iran, it was always two-hatted. It was partly Turkey, partly Iran. With Iran going down, Hamas is now the vanguard of this new spear, this Syrian Muslim Brotherhood-al-Jolani-Turkish threat to Israel. So we have to stop looking at them as orphans who are desperate because their patron is about to be destroyed. They've already switched sides, they are already part of the oncoming threat, and that is Qatar. The Saudis see that."
That said, he adds, "The best arrangements emerge from under the table or invisible strategic cooperation. The strategic cooperation with Jordan was far more important, going back decades before the peace treaties. I argue that strategic cooperation with Saudi Arabia is far more important than a formal peace treaty. The problem with a formal peace treaty is that you get other issues like the Palestinian issue. That can disrupt the under-the-table strategic cooperation. I would let the Saudi peace agreement organically grow rather than push it or work toward it."
According to him, the problem with the issue currently is that "all the frameworks in the Middle East were set by the Biden administration and define the Biden administration's strategic vision which ultimately boiled down to a two-state solution and Israel not winning this war."
He says that they forced the Palestinian issue onto all the talks for the Abraham Accords. "The Abraham Accords said that there are interests between Israel and the Arab countries that transcend the Palestinians' ability to issue a veto and sabotage forward movement. So the two issues were decoupled, and the Biden administration recoupled them."
Now that bringing Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords would pass through the Palestinian issue, he insists that "I don't think it's wise for Israel to pursue, I don't think it's wise for the US to pursue, and, moreover, it will not succeed and it can even undermine the strategic cooperation that exists with Saudi Arabia. The only way forward with the Saudis is if you decouple it from the Palestinian issue."