Foreign Minister and Kadima leader Tzipi Livni told Defense Minister and Labor leader Ehud Barak in the past 24 hours that she will not agree to head a government that enjoys the support of less than 65 Knesset Members. Barak told her that he, too, will not agree to sit in a narrow coalition.

If Livni acts upon her statement, this would mean that her chances of creating a coalition are very slim. According to pundits and reporters speaking on Voice of Israel radio Friday, Livni's only chance of forming a coalition with a majority of at least five or six MK without Shas would be to enlist United Torah Judaism (UTJ) alongside Labor, the Pensioners' Party and Meretz. However, this scenario is seen as unlikely primarily because UTJ is perceived as even more right-leaning than Shas.

Shas's spiritual leader Rabbi Ovadia Yosef is considered relatively dovish and has pronounced h
Polls predict that Labor will be badly mauled if elections were held today.
alachic opinions that make it possible to give parts of Judea and Samaria to the Arabs. However, Shas's voters are mostly right-wing.

The pundits said the most likely scenario by far is the holding of early elections in February or early March 2009.

Pensioners out
The left-wing Meretz faction, with five Knesset seats, has said it would be teaming up with Livni in any case, and this means that Livni's Kadima faction (with 29 MKs) and Labor (19 MKs) total 53 MKs with Meretz's support. The addition of the Pensioners and UTJ, with six MKs each, would give Livni a relatively solid majority, but even the Pensioners have gone back on an earlier deal they had with Kadima and their support is no longer certain.

Labor Minister Shalom Simchon said Friday that he believes Shas will enter the coalition, despite their current announcements. "I do not believe that there is an option that [sic] Livni will not form a government," he said. However, he added, "if she does decide this, the Labor party will run and win the coming elections."

Polls predict that Labor will be badly mauled if elections were held today and could become smaller than Shas.