This is a D'var Torah about scary numbers that imply a frightening scenario for the future. I pray it will help us wake up. Because, assuming that the following deductions from the holy words of our Sages and Prophets are valid, the frightening scenario is only that - a scenario. It will not happen if we mend our ways. My main source is a famous Mechilta on the phrase "Chamushim Alu Bnay Yisrael?" (Shemot 13:18):



"Another opinion: Chamushim Alu - one in five (went up from Egypt). Some say: one in fifty. Some say: one in five hundred. Rabbi Nehorai says: By the Temple service! Not even one in five hundred went up, as it is written: '[in your blood, live!] I gave you revava k'tsemach hasadeh (Ezechiel 16:6,7).' And it says: 'The children of Israel were fruitful and swarmed (Shemot 1:7).' And it was such that a woman would give birth to six children in one time. And you say that one in five hundred went up? By the Temple service! Not even one in five hundred went up, but many from Israel died in Egypt. When did they die? In the three days of darkness."



Rashi cites from this the first and the last part: one in five went up, and the others died in the days of darkness. It is an accepted tradition: HaShem killed eighty percent of the His nation during the days of darkness. The eighty percent is a scary number, because we know that the last redemption will be like the first. It speaks a clear language about the seriousness of being a Jew.



What horrendous transgression was the justification for the massacre? We read about the days of darkness: "for all the Children of Israel there was light in their dwellings (Shemot 10:23)." At first glance, this seems to contradict a massacre at that time. Is massive death not utter darkness? However, the verse may also be taken to point at the fatal transgression. Four out of five did not want to live in the light of the Torah as Children of Israel. They wanted to be children of Jacob, without the Torah. Hence, all the Children of Israel had light, as the children of Jacob were dying.



Talking about scary numbers: what about the other opinions stated in the Mechilta? Is it conceivable that 98% were killed? And what about the opinion that the Mechilta stresses most? Is it possible that more than 99.8% were killed? Here, the Mechilta very likely speaks in code, and that is why Rashi and other commentators of Torah ignore it. It did not happen. Rather, the Mechilta conveys what should not be understood by all, as it speaks about the last exile and redemption in the language of the first exile and redemption. The days of darkness stand for the Galut, in which the only light is the light of Torah in Jewish houses. What were our Sages saying about the Galut?



I understand it as follows. It may be that one in five will go up: the Galut may be as short as five human generations - so that it would end around the time this Mechilta was likely written. However, the Galut could also take fifty human generations - so that it would end close to the year 6000. If a deserving generation will arise out of the Galut, all of its millions will go up. However, if - after fifty generations - a non-deserving nation will be redeemed, it is possible that no more than ten percent of them will go up, or even fewer.



Our Sages used the code of the Mechilta to emphasize the likelihood of the latter scenario. Its ten percent should scare us, since the fifty generations have clearly gone by. Even more shivering is the following consideration.



The Mechilta may hint at the numerical details of the worst-case scenario, through the citation from Ezekiel in which I left a part untranslated: "in your blood, live! I gave you revava k'tsemach hasadeh." Revava is a myriad, ten thousand. The numerical value of k'tsemach is 158, the numerical value of hasadeh is 314. Is Ezekiel speaking about 472 myriads of Jews, divided into 158 myriads and 314 myriads? The ratios between the numbers brings to mind a very frightening prophecy: "And it will be in all the land, the word of HaShem, two parts in it will be cut off and perish, and the third will be left in it (Zechariah 13:8)." The current Jewish population of the State of Israel is close to 472 myriads, 4.72 million souls; one third is 1.58 million, about ten percent of the world's Jews.



"Return, unbehaving children, the word of HaShem; for I took you for myself and I will take you, one from a city, and two of a family, and I will bring you to Zion." (Jeremiah 3:14)



"And I will bring the third part through the fire, and will refine them as silver is refined, and I will scrutinize them as gold is scrutinized. They will call on My Name, and I will answer them. I will say: 'That is My people.' And they will say: 'HaShem is my God.'" (Zecharia 13:9)



[With thanks to Rabbi Uriel Malka.]