For nearly half a century, the Islamic Republic of Iran pursued an expansive and ideologically driven regional project. Born out of the 1979 Islamist Revolution, this vision aimed to construct a transnational Shia axis that would project Tehran’s influence across the Middle East. It was an empire without borders, held together not by treaties or formal institutions but by ideological zeal, proxy militias, and Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
By the early 2020s, the Islamic Republic had embedded itself deep within the political and military fabric of Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen. Tehran’s proxies dominated state institutions, disrupted local balances of power, and helped turn the Iranian regime into the region’s most disruptive force. That empire appeared durable, even unshakable—until October 7, 2023.
That day, Hamas, a key pillar in Iran’s proxy network, launched a brutal terrorist attack on Israel. Whether Tehran orchestrated it or merely inspired it, the result was the same: it triggered a seismic shift in Israeli security strategy. Israel, long wedded to the doctrine of “the War Between Wars”—calibrated, largely covert operations meant to weaken but not provoke—abandoned its policy of restraint. Strategic patience gave way to open confrontation. The new Israeli doctrine sought not to dismember but to decapitate the Iranian octopus. For the first time, Iran itself became the direct target.
The first blows were struck at Iran’s outer defenses. Hamas and Hezbollah came under relentless assault and lost most of their capabilities. But the turning point came when Bashar al-Assad’s regime, long sustained by Iranian support, began to crumble under coordinated Israeli and rebel pressure. Losing Syria did not just strip Iran of a client state; it severed the land corridor connecting Iran to Lebanon and the Israeli front. It fractured the strategic backbone of Iran’s so-called “Shia Crescent.”
Then came the strikes inside Iran. For twelve consecutive days, Israel unleashed a punishing air campaign targeting nuclear facilities, military command centers, and infrastructure deep within Iranian territory. The near-total elimination of Iran’s senior military leadership sent shockwaves through the regime. Yet Tehran rebounded and retaliated, launching volleys of destructive missiles at Israeli cities and transforming the battle into a war of attrition, unprecedented in scope and intensity.
Fearing a wider regional conflict, the United States stepped in. In what was perceived as an attempt to halt escalation rather than prolong war, U.S. Air Force targeted Iran’s most critical nuclear sites—long the primary source of Israeli grievance and the central flashpoint in its confrontation with the Iranian regime. Following the air strikes, President Trump quickly called for a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, hoping to avoid the kind of prolonged engagement that has haunted American foreign policy for decades.
But the ceasefire brought no closure. It merely froze a conflict in which both sides, despite inflicting heavy blows, failed to achieve their strategic objectives. Israel failed to bring down the Iranian regime or fully dismantle its nuclear program. Iran failed to keep Israel out of its territory or deter it from pursuing further attempts at regime change. As hostilities subsided, both sides rushed to declare victory while continuing to exchange threats of considerable intensity against one another.
The Shia Empire Tehran had cultivated for decades now lay in ruins—its outer provinces lost, its military hollowed out, and its nuclear program badly damaged. Still, the Islamic Republic survived. It reasserted internal control, and in some quarters even managed to rally patriotic sentiment. Meanwhile, Tehran’s global allies, particularly China and Russia, began recalibrating their approach. Caught off-guard by the war’s scale and speed, they are now likely to offer covert support to Iran, helping it resist future Israeli attacks and rebuild parts of its strategic deterrence.
Moreover, many opponents of the regime, both within Iran and abroad, harbor deep concerns about what might follow its chaotic collapse. The prospect of a prolonged, attritional war; the absence of a unified, democratic alternative; the threat of civil war, state disintegration, and even civilizational collapse; and the hesitation of neighboring countries to become entangled in a potentially destabilizing transition—all contribute to a cautious and calculated posture at the domestic, regional, and international levels.
As I have long argued, the Iranian people, their neighbors, and much of the global community undoubtedly desire change in Iran, but they don’t want any chaos that could consume them all.
What Israeli strikes have made clear is that regime change in Iran cannot be achieved through decapitation operations and airstrikes alone. Toppling a regime as entrenched and deeply rooted as Iran’s would require ground invasion—something only the United States could feasibly undertake. But with both Democrats and Republicans weary of “forever wars,” and with Trump’s own MAGA base firmly opposed to another Middle East quagmire, such a move remains politically untenable.
Instead, Washington may opt to back Israel in a prolonged campaign of strategic degradation—increasing arms transfers, intelligence cooperation, and logistical support. Already, there is talk in Congress of B-2 bombers and GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs being put at Israel’s disposal. The goal would be to steadily erode Iran’s military, nuclear, and even civilian infrastructure in hopes of turning popular sentiment against the regime.
That course, however, carries significant risks for both regional and global security and stability. Continued Israeli strikes may fall short of toppling the Iranian regime, yet they could push Tehran toward a fateful decision: to accelerate its development of nuclear weapons and unleash a broader war—not only against Israel but also the Gulf states and Western interests. A desperate regime armed with ballistic missiles could even directly strike European soil. Such a conflict has the potential to escalate far beyond the Middle East, drawing in global powers and igniting a conflagration with far-reaching and unpredictable consequences.
The Middle East has entered a new, post-Shia-Empire era. The pre-October 7 order is gone. Iran’s regional empire lies in ruins, and Israel is aggressively asserting its dominance. The regional balance of power is shifting rapidly, with major players, including Arab states, Pakistan, and Turkey, now recalibrating their positions in anticipation of what comes next. The future may hold a fragile balance of power and uneasy coexistence, or total war and widespread conflagration. Whatever the outcome, one thing remains certain. As I noted at the time, the Middle East will never return to what it was before “Israel’s 9/11.”
Reza Parchizadeh, PhD, is a political scientist, foreign policy specialist, and Middle East expert. He has written extensively on Iran’s nuclear program and geopolitical ambitions. He has appeared on Al Arabiya, BBC, Fox News, and Radio Israel, and is a regular guest analyst on the U.S. government’s Voice of America.