While Israelis are preoccupied with the profit Israel will derive from the agreement with the United Arab Emirates, the question of the UAE's profit from the agreement arises, and we discussed this with Middle East expert Dr. Moti Kedar, who links the agreement, Iran, and the upcoming U.S. presidential election.
He says that although many talk about the Iranian context as the main motivation for the alliance created with Israel, and it is certainly possible that there is something to that, "but the Iranian interest is expressed in something much bigger," he says, explaining that the UAE as well as Bahrain and Saudi Arabia desperately want Trump re-elected next November "because if the Democrats return to power it will be a disaster for them. They will strengthen Iran, bring back the nuclear deal, and lift the sanctions. They're willing to give a lot for Trump to win.
"They know most Jews don't vote for Trump, but if they sign an agreement on the White House lawn a week before the election many Jews will switch their vote from Democrats to Trump," says Dr. Kedar, noting that many countries have known over the years that the road to Washington passes through Jerusalem. Among other reasons, because of the personal relations of prime ministers with American presidents, these countries are well aware of the power of Jews in the media and in the business world as well among top decision-makers in the White House.
"This is a period of final alignment if we want to make an impact," says Kedar, referring to the expected timing of the signing ceremony of the agreement between Israel and the United Arab Emirates. "The signing will be towards the end of October. Trump will try to include Bahrain, Oman, and maybe even the diamond in the crown, Saudi Arabia. I'm sure the ambassadors of Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman will sit in the audience. Trump will seat them in the front row. Maybe there'll be ambassadors or even the foreign ministers of Egypt and Jordan. Trump will want to do the biggest TV production to portray himself as a peacemaker, beyond influencing the Jews.
"What will a Jew who supports Biden say against an American president who shakes the Israeli prime minister's hands with the leaders of the United Arab Emirates and the principalities?" Kedar is convinced that although the agreement is not everything in the eyes of the Jewish voter in the United States, the older generation among the Jewish community may change its position or prefer not to vote at all.
"As the radical Arab states disappear and the Arab League isn't functioning, they feel free to do what suits their interests, especially while the radical Arab world is occupied by Iran. There are no more Arab axioms. The Arab world no longer exists," says Dr. Kedar, adding that the Arab world feels "hate and anger towards the Palestinians for their continued fraud beyond the extortion of the Arab pocket." In this context, he mentions the agreement signed at the Kaaba in Mecca between Hamas and Fatah and the continuation of armed struggle between the two factions shortly thereafter. For the Saudis, this is an insult that is not easy to forget. "The Palestinians have honestly earned their hatred. They supported Saddam Hussein, Gaddafi, supported the destruction of Lebanon, cooperated with all the scoundrels that no one wants to hear from, so today they cry that the Emirates are betraying them?"