Israeli officials have warned the Trump administration that an Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) missile exercise could be preparations for an attack on Israel, Barak Ravid of Axios reported on Sunday, citing three Israeli and US officials with direct knowledge of the matter.
Israeli sources said the intelligence gathered so far shows only force movements inside Iran. Still, concerns remain high, as Israel’s tolerance for risk is far lower than it was before the Hamas invasion on October 7, 2023.
One Israeli source quoted by Axios noted that similar warnings were raised six weeks ago after intelligence identified Iranian missile movements that ultimately led to no action. “The chances for an Iranian attack are less than 50%, but nobody is willing to take the risk and just say it is only an exercise,” the source said.
American intelligence officials told Axios the US currently sees no indication that Iran is preparing an imminent strike.
Behind the scenes, according to the report, IDF Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir spoke on Saturday with US Central Command (CENTCOM) head Adm. Brad Cooper to convey Israel’s concerns about the IRGC missile maneuvers launched several days ago. According to sources, Zamir warned that the missile activity and other operational movements could be used as cover for a surprise attack, urging close coordination between US and Israeli forces on defensive measures.
Cooper met Zamir and senior IDF officials in Tel Aviv on Sunday to discuss the situation. The IDF declined to comment, and CENTCOM did not respond to a request for comment.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet US President Donald Trump on December 29 in Miami, Israeli sources said. On Saturday, NBC News reported that Netanyahu intends to discuss with Trump Iran’s ballistic missile buildup and the possibility of another Israeli strike against Iran in 2026.
According to Israeli intelligence, Iran appears to be rebuilding its missile forces with greater determination than at any time since the 12-day war in June. Israeli officials said that after the war, Iran’s missile stockpiles dropped from 3,000 to around 1,500, while its number of launchers fell from 400 to 200.
On Saturday, Iran International reported that Western intelligence sources had identified “unusual aerial activity” by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps’ Aerospace Force.
The activity, which includes movements and coordination “beyond normal patterns” between drone, missile, and air-defense units, has "prompted heightened monitoring," the site added.
The officials said that one assessment is that this may be part of a military exercise, but noted that the scope of the activity and the synchronization has drawn particular attention.