A new poll by the Midgam Institute, published Tuesday evening on Channel 12 News, explores the political ramifications of Gadi Eisenkot’s resignation from the National Unity Party.
If elections were held today with the current political configuration, the Likud Party would win 26 seats, while Naftali Bennett’s party would secure 24. The Democrats would receive 12 seats, Yisrael Beytenu 10, Yesh Atid 9, Shas 9, United Torah Judaism 8, Blue and White 6, Otzma Yehudit 6, Hadash-Ta’al 5, and Ra’am 5. The Religious Zionist Party would not pass the electoral threshold.
In a scenario where Gadi Eisenkot forms a new party, it would win 8 seats - surpassing Yesh Atid and Blue and White. Under this scenario, Likud would remain at 26 seats, while Bennett’s party would drop to 22. The Democrats would fall to 10 seats, Yesh Atid would weaken to 7, and the parties of Benny Gantz and Avigdor Liberman would each lose one seat.
If Eisenkot were to lead Yesh Atid with Yair Lapid as his number two, the party would surge to 18 seats. Likud would hold steady at 26, while Bennett’s party would drop to 21 seats, the Democrats to 9, and Blue and White would fall to just 4 seats.
In contrast, if Eisenkot joins Bennett as his second-in-command, their joint party would become the largest in the Knesset with 32 seats. In this case, Likud would gain one seat, rising to 27. The Democrats would fall to 11 seats, Yesh Atid to 8, and Blue and White would not pass the electoral threshold.
A separate poll by the Maagar Mochot Institute, published on Channel 13 News, found that a new party led by Eisenkot would win 9 seats - again pushing Blue and White below the threshold. In that poll, Likud would win 25 seats, Bennett’s party 21, Shas and Yisrael Beytenu 10 each, the Democrats 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, United Torah Judaism 7, Yesh Atid 7, and both Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al would receive 5 seats each. The Religious Zionist Party would pass the threshold with 4 seats.
In this scenario, the current coalition bloc would secure 54 seats, while the bloc opposing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - together with the Arab parties - would hold a 66-seat majority.
Another scenario from the same poll examined the outcome if Eisenkot were to join Bennett’s party. Their joint slate would again emerge as the largest, with 31 seats. Likud would win 24 seats, the Democrats would rise to 10, and Gantz’s National Unity Party would narrowly pass the threshold with 4 seats.
A final scenario considered Eisenkot joining forces with Lapid. In that case, their joint Yesh Atid would win only 14 seats. Likud would secure 26 seats, Bennett’s party would gain 23, and the National Unity Party would not pass the threshold.