Shimrit Meir, an Arab affairs analyst who served as diplomatic adviser to former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, on Tuesday published on X three possible scenarios regarding how the war between Israel and Hamas will continue.
The war started October 7, when 2,900 terrorists infiltrated Israel, massacring civilians who were celebrating the Simchat Torah holiday in their homes and communities, including over 250 young people who were attending a music festival near Re'im. At least 200 people were kidnapped to Gaza during the infiltration; Israel has not yet finished identifying the victims and burying them. Parallel to the infiltration, air raid sirens sounded throughout Israel.
In a series of posts published on X, the platform which was formerly Twitter, Meir detailed the first scenario, in which US pressure stops the ground invasion into Gaza: "The Biden visit will mark the operation's dusk, not its start. There will be no massive entry into Gaza, and no collapsing Hamas, but something along the lines of, 'Hamas has suffered a serious blow.' Maybe there will be a large prisoner deal. We wish [PM] Netanyahu much luck when faced with the frustration from the public."
In the second scenario, "Israel sends ground forces into Gaza anyways, Hezbollah/the axis make good on their threats, and the US needs to make good on its promise. Regarding their military superiority, there is no disagreement: A billion and a half levels above the enemy. The question pertains to intentions, willingness, and the level of involvement."
"The Americans will aim for a quick conclusion with no complications, since this will very quickly become a controversial issue in the US. Faced with an Israeli-American coalition, Hezbollah will become what Hamas is now, [and] will want help from its big brother, Iran. As is known, Hezbollah is alive and arming itself from within the civilian population and the US sensitivity on this matter should already be clear to us. The Americans have nothing against the citizens of Lebanon - to the contrary, they are interested in their welfare (see the maritime border agreement). It is unnecessary to state that this is an unfamiliar scenario, completely different than in previous rounds, and therefore it is hard to imagine it."
She continued, "Another option is opening a front with Syria or activating the Shiite militias against the US interests in the region - Iraq, the Gulf, etc. The goal is to create a price tag for the US for their support of Israel, which will spark internal discussion in the US. I don't know if that will satisfy Hamas' leaders, who already now are pressuring for real aid in the battle, not acts of solidarity."
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