The United States has warned Spain, France and Italy of a possible Russian drone operation against one of the three European countries, according to a report published by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo.
The report, citing intelligence sources, said the CIA shared information with European governments about a potential Russian escalation against NATO countries. The warning reportedly followed CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow in August. The reported intelligence has not been independently confirmed.
According to El Mundo, one scenario being examined involves Russian drones being transported aboard an ordinary merchant vessel and launched from concealed containers in the Mediterranean. A source close to Lithuania’s Defense Ministry described the method as relatively straightforward.
The drones reportedly under consideration are Gerbera unmanned aircraft, which can carry a limited explosive payload and have a reported range of up to approximately 600 kilometers. A merchant vessel could potentially carry multiple drones and launch them from hundreds of kilometers offshore, according to the report. The reported scenario would allow the drones to approach European territory without being launched from Russian-controlled land. Depending on their launch point and flight conditions, the aircraft could potentially reach coastal targets within a relatively short period.
The Gerbera’s relatively small payload would limit its ability to destroy major infrastructure outright. However, analysts cited in reports about the warning said such drones could potentially start fires, damage exposed equipment or temporarily disrupt operations at airports and seaports. The purpose of such an operation could therefore be disruption and political impact rather than large-scale physical destruction.
The reported warning comes amid growing European concerns over Russian hybrid operations, including alleged sabotage and drone incidents. French President Emmanuel Macron said last week that Russian hybrid attacks targeting Europe, including cyber and drone operations, were intensifying.
The choice of Spain, France or Italy would also demonstrate that countries far from Russia’s borders are not necessarily outside the potential range of such operations. Analysts argued that Moscow could seek vulnerable targets away from NATO’s eastern flank, particularly where air-defense systems are less suited to small, low-cost drones.
The report also comes as European intelligence officials have warned of possible Russian attempts to test NATO’s response through provocations, sabotage or limited attacks. European security officials remain divided over the timing and likelihood of any major Russian escalation, however, with some urging caution about interpreting the reported threat.
Italy’s Defense Minister Guido Crosetto has also questioned the reported warning, with Italian reports saying that the alleged alert had not been confirmed at an operational, intelligence or diplomatic level in Italy.