Does the suspension of US strikes against Iran signal a shift in Washington's policy, or is it merely a temporary pause before the campaign resumes? Speaking with Arutz Sheva, i24NEWS diplomatic correspondent Guy Azriel said there is currently no reason to view the move as a change in American policy.
His comments came in response to a New York Times report claiming that the United States halted its strikes because of concerns over dwindling interceptor missile stockpiles. Azriel cautioned against accepting the report at face value.
"I wouldn't buy every report as it is. It's also rather strange that the Americans would leak such a weakness on their part," he said. Nevertheless, he added that even if such a consideration exists, it does not mean the strategic objectives have changed.
"The decision to pause the strikes for now is a tactical one that does not alter the shared objectives of the United States and Israel going forward."
Azriel said a source familiar with discussions between Israel and the U.S. had expressed optimism about future developments.
"There's a good chance for change in the Middle East-nothing less," he quoted the source as saying.
In his assessment, the campaign is far from over, and the pause in strikes may simply be intended to allow time for regrouping. He also did not rule out the possibility that some of the assessments and leaks currently circulating are serving as a "smokescreen."
"We're far from the end of this story," he emphasized.
Azriel noted that while Israel and the United States share many interests, differences remain, particularly regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Even so, he believes the current situation is benefiting Israel: Iran continues to come under attack, while Israel's economy is functioning normally, there have been no Iranian missile launches, and there has been no depletion of Israel's interceptor missile stockpiles.
He added that the Gulf states are also paying an economic and security price because of the current situation, bringing their interests closer to those of Israel. In that context, he mentioned a phone call initiated by Bahrain's leadership with Israeli President Isaac Herzog, during which, according to Herzog, both he and the King of Bahrain wished Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu success ahead of his trip to the United States.
Azriel believes this reflects growing regional cooperation, alongside additional behind-the-scenes contacts that have not been made public.
Regarding U.S. President Donald Trump, Azriel cautioned against making definitive predictions about his next steps. He said that while Trump is attentive to public opinion, the polls he has seen indicate that support for the war remains strong among Republicans and within the MAGA movement, despite critical voices emerging from within those circles.
Addressing the future of American politics, Azriel said the growing isolationist trend concerns him. However, he noted that according to a recent poll he reviewed, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has regained momentum and is currently viewed as a strong contender in a future presidential race. He stressed, however, that it is far too early to predict how the U.S. political landscape will develop.
Beyond the military and diplomatic considerations, Azriel also pointed to the costs the United States is bearing during the conflict. He said Trump must answer questions about the financial cost of the campaign and American casualties, while also addressing the gap between his claims that Iran's capabilities had been completely destroyed and the reality on the ground.
Despite those challenges, Azriel emphasized that both Israel and the United States have achieved significant successes during the campaign and maintained that the current pause in U.S. strikes should not be interpreted as a sign that the conflict has come to an end.