Documents uncovered from intelligence materials seized in the Gaza Strip and analyzed by the Amit Institute for Counter-Terrorism and Intelligence Research shed light on the internal discourse within the Hamas leadership leading up to the October 7, 2023 attacks.
The records indicate that the terrorist organization feared an imminent normalization agreement between Israel and Saudi Arabia under the framework of the Abraham Accords. These strategic considerations served as a primary catalyst for the timing of the assault.
In February 2022, Hamas established a dedicated bureau tasked with managing its anti-normalization strategy, aimed at overseeing the group's vision and coordinating its activities across all fronts.
Additionally, the documents outline a perceived necessity to fuel escalation in Judea and Samaria and Jerusalem to stall the normalization process, drawing directly on tactical lessons learned from the Second Intifada.
Two weeks prior to the attack, Yahya Sinwar, the Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip, convened a pivotal meeting where he addressed the severe geopolitical ramifications of a potential Saudi-Israeli deal, framing the counter-strategy as an "extraordinary operation."
Sinwar noted that the move had to trigger a "major seismic shift or strategic turning point" in the regional balance of power. He emphasized that Hamas was compelled to disrupt the diplomatic track to safeguard its standing and strip the potential accords of legitimacy.
Ultimately, the documents underscore that Hamas did not act on impulse, but rather followed a meticulous, premeditated blueprint that viewed a Saudi-Israeli alliance as an existential threat to both the Palestinian Arab cause and their own regional influence. The group’s internal consensus held that a calculated escalation in the territories would successfully halt the diplomatic breakthrough and fortify the "Axis of Resistance."