A new Maariv poll published Thursday morning shows the Religious Zionist party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich winning four seats in the upcoming elections, allowing it to pass the electoral threshold.
This is the first time since December 2025 that a Maariv poll has showed the party passing the electoral threshold.
With Smotrich's rise, the right-religious bloc rises two seats, reaching 51, and brings the center-left bloc down from a narrow majority of 61 seats to just 59 seats. The Arab parties would hold the remaining 10 seats.
Polls by channels 12, 13, and i24NEWS also give the Religious Zionist party four Knesset seats, while Channel 14 gives it five seats for the second week running.
According to the Maariv poll, the "Together" party led by former prime ministers Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid would be the largest party, with 25 Knesset seats, followed closely by the Likud with 24.
"Yashar!" led by Gadi Eisenkot would reach third place, with 15 seats, followed by the Democrats party with 10 seats.
Among the smaller parties, Yisrael Beytenu would win nine Knesset seats, while Shas and Otzma Yehudit would win eight seats each. United Torah Judaism would win seven seats, and the Arab parties, Hadash-Ta'al and Ra'am (United Arab List) would win five seats each; the Religious Zionist party would be smallest in the Knesset, with just four seats.
Blue and White, the Arab "Balad," and the Reservists party would remain below the electoral threshold.
The Maariv poll also examined three different scenarios in which the Yashar!, Together, and Yisrael Beytenu parties ran as a single list, presenting different options for the party's leader in each scenario.
The data indicated that such a joint party would do best if Eisenkot held the party's top spot: In such a case, the list would win 49 Knesset seats, the same as the three parties would win if they ran separately. The other parties' seats would remain unchanged in such a scenario.