A senior IDF officer told Kan News that Hezbollah is increasingly concerned about regional isolation, partly due to the possibility of losing Iranian backing, but the organization still refuses to give up its weapons.
The security establishment recognizes a real fear among the organization's leadership of a scenario of political and military isolation, especially in light of the possibility that full Iranian backing will not be available to them as in the past.
The concern within Hezbollah focuses on the fact that a future agreement between Jerusalem and Beirut will legitimize the Lebanese government to actively work to reduce the organization's power in the country.
Despite this, the officer emphasized that Hezbollah sees their weapons as a red line and non-negotiable. "For them, weapons are not just a tool of war against Israel, but the backbone that gives them their political and strategic influence inside Lebanon."
Israel estimates that the issue of disarmament will be the central and most complex obstacle to any attempt to reach a long-term settlement. Hezbollah's uncompromising position poses a challenge not only to Israel, but also to international mediators trying to stabilize the northern sector.
The Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan reported that the Lebanese side is increasing contacts and consultations in preparation for negotiations with Israel that are expected to take place in Washington this Thursday.
According to the report, Lebanon is expected to raise a series of demands, primarily establishing a ceasefire and ending the military escalation, in order to allow the opening of a broader political process. Later, it is claimed, additional issues will be discussed, including the withdrawal of IDF forces from Lebanese territory, the return of Lebanese prisoners, the rehabilitation of villages, and the return of displaced persons to their homes. It was also reported that the United States and Israel are focusing on the demand for steps to disarm Hezbollah and establish Lebanese sovereignty over its entire territory.