Dr. Mordechai Kedar, Vice President of Newsrael and a Middle East expert, believes Iran does not currently feel genuinely threatened despite recent statements from President Trump.
Speaking to Arutz Sheva-Israel National News on Thursday afternoon, Dr. Kedar argued that the message lacks the clarity required to deter Tehran, addressing President Trump’s recent remarks that “help is on the way," alongside talk of negotiations and simultaneous threats.
“The Iranians do not feel any threat," he said. According to Dr. Kedar, the approach of suggesting meetings and negotiations undermines the perception of seriousness. “Whenever they sense a willingness to negotiate, or maybe let’s come to terms, they start postponing, they start dragging time, buying time, con you, cheat you, lie to you," he asserted.
In his view, only an unequivocal ultimatum would constitute a credible threat. Without that, he said, “so far, they don’t sense a credible threat."
Turning to Israel’s position, Dr. Kedar suggested that Tehran views Jerusalem differently from Washington.
“The Iranians take Israel much more seriously than America, because Israel doesn’t negotiate with them. Israel just hits," he said, referencing past incidents in which Israel acted after coordinating with the US and others.
Despite what he described as the significant power the US has accumulated around Iran, Dr. Kedar maintained that Iran fears Israel more. He cited Israeli intelligence capabilities, saying they are capable of directing strikes “to the most aching nerve in their body politic."
Regarding reports that President Trump’s advisers may be encouraging Israel to initiate an attack that the US would later join, Dr. Kedar said he is not privy to discussions in the White House or State Department. “Whoever makes decisions in the United States, I focus more on the Iranians themselves," he said.
He added that the matter ultimately rests with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, cautioning that escalation could spiral. “It might deteriorate to a global crisis with Russia, with China, with others," he warned, adding that he is “not sure that Netanyahu wants to be remembered in the world’s history as the one who ignited World War III."
On the situation in Gaza, Dr. Kedar questioned whether the current reality can be defined as peace.
“Peace, to begin with, is based on the fact that both sides of the struggle start with recognizing each other’s right to exist," he said. Without such mutual recognition, he argued, there is no foundation for any agreement.
He stated that neither Israel nor Hamas recognizes the other’s right to exist, asking, “So, what kind of peace can be built on this?"
Dr. Kedar also expressed skepticism about reconstruction efforts in Gaza while Hamas remains armed. “No one with the right mind will go to operate a bulldozer or whatever when people can shoot him only because they don’t like him," he said.
Responding to claims that Hamas would be dismantled, Dr. Kedar replied, “I want to see this first. After this happens, let me know, and we can continue from that point. So far, I don’t see Hamas giving up their weapons."
Dr. Kedar also addressed the “emirate model," an initiative he has long promoted and which was recently discussed by Minister Nir Barkat in the Arutz Sheva studio.
According to Dr. Kedar, the concept extends beyond Judea and Samaria, working as the best model for the broader Arab world.
“Nationalism is an ideology. Islamism is theology. Clan system is biology," he said, contending that clan-based governance has proven most effective in the region.
He pointed to Gulf states such as Dubai, Abu Dhabi, Ras Al Khaimah, Fujairah, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia, noting that each is based on a dominant ruling family. In his words, “This is the only paradigm which works well in the Arab world. The state, which is based on a clan."
Dr. Kedar has advocated for more than 20 years for the establishment of local emirates in cities such as Hebron, Nablus, Jericho, Ramallah, Tulkarem, Qalqilya, and Jenin, each rooted in its local clans.
Under his proposal, Israel would retain control over the rural areas, annex them, and offer Israeli citizenship to villagers. The emirates would function separately and maintain bilateral relations with Israel. If they chose to form a federation under an umbrella framework, he said, that would be acceptable, provided there is no territorial contiguity between them.
“This is the only system which can work for them and for us," Dr. Kedar concluded.