Channel 12 political analyst Amit Segal sharply criticized polling institutes after exit polls for Israel's 26th Knesset elections indicated results vastly different from pre-election polls.
"It must be acknowledged that this is a Yom Kippur (Day of Atonement -ed.) for most pollsters," Segal wrote, pointing to the discrepancy between forecasts that gave the opposition a six-seat advantage and the election results.
According to Segal, such a significant shift within just a few days cannot be explained by normal fluctuations in public opinion.
"There is no statistical way to explain how a six-seat advantage for the opposition could be reversed in four days," he argued.
Noting the years of similar predictions, Segal added, "This makes a mockery of four years of polls that presented us with a picture of reality that, in retrospect, turned out to bear no resemblance to reality."
He also said that the problem extends beyond estimating the electoral strength of political parties to measuring public opinion on major issues that have dominated the national agenda in recent years, including the war, the establishment of a commission of inquiry, hostage release deals, and other matters.
One of Segal's central criticisms concerned voting patterns in the Arab community. According to him, none of the polling institutes managed to anticipate the significant increase in Arab voter turnout.
"All pollsters, without exception, failed to identify the surge in Arab [turnout]," he stated.
At the same time, he noted, "Already we can identify two pollsters who identified the Likud's strength over time: Shlomo Filber from Channel 14, and Tzuriel Sharon from Channel 15. They read the map more accurately. Tzuriel and the Direct Polls team were the closest in terms of identifying the size of the blocs."