A new Israeli Society Index published by the Jewish People Policy Institute (JPPI) indicates that most Israeli voters have already made up their minds ahead of the expected election campaign, with the right continuing to strengthen and the political center likely to determine the outcome.
According to the survey, 53% of Israelis are completely certain which party they will vote for, while another 29% say they are fairly certain. Fourteen percent remain undecided, and 4% say they do not intend to vote.
The survey found that most undecided voters are concentrated in the political center. Among left-wing voters, 71% say they are completely certain of their choice, compared with 58% of right-wing voters. However, the highest levels of indecision are found among center-right and centrist voters, suggesting that the decisive electoral battleground will be the political center.
The findings also indicate continued growth in right-wing identification among Jewish Israelis. Sixty-six percent of Jewish respondents now identify themselves somewhere on the political right, up from 63% a year ago. The share identifying with the political center has risen to 13%, while those identifying with the left have declined to 19%.
Among Arab respondents, half identify themselves as being on the political left, while the proportion of those who do not place themselves anywhere on the political spectrum has declined.
On the question of a preferred governing coalition, no single option commanded majority support. Across the general public, the most popular option was a "Change Bloc" coalition that includes Arab parties, supported by 27% of respondents. Among prospective Likud voters, however, 42% said they would prefer a right-wing coalition that also includes a centrist party.
Regarding the issues most likely to determine voting decisions, 28% of respondents cited national security as their top concern, followed by relations between the government and the judicial system at 18%.
Among right-wing voters, security and judicial reform stood out as the dominant issues. Seventy percent of respondents who identified the judicial system as the most important issue said they preferred a right-wing coalition-a finding that, according to the survey, underscores the issue's central importance to the right-wing camp.
JPPI President Prof. Yedidia Stern said, "The findings show that most Israelis are entering the election campaign with firmly established political preferences. As a result, the political battle will focus on winning the votes of the centrist bloc. At the same time, it is clear that the issue of the judicial system remains a central component of the political identity of the right-wing camp, even after nearly three years in which the public agenda has been dominated by the war.
"Israeli society continues to grapple with the state's fundamental questions and its identity, not only with security issues. In previous surveys, we warned that Israelis view internal division as their greatest and most dangerous enemy. For that reason, we should strive to form the broadest possible coalition after the elections-one that establishes agreed 'rules of the game' and clear boundaries for managing political disagreements through the 'thin constitution' that we are drafting together with a team of experts representing all sectors of Israeli society."