With 107 days until the election, a poll conducted by the Kantar Institute for Kan 11 News and published Sunday evening reveals that if elections were held today, the coalition bloc would win 52 seats, while the anti-Netanyahu bloc - excluding Arab parties - would take 58.
Gadi Eisenkot’s "Yashar" party leads the poll with 24 seats, followed by Likud with 23. Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett’s Together alliance receives 15 seats, Liberman (Yisrael Beytenu) 10, The Democrats 9, Otzma Yehudit 8, Shas 8, United Torah Judaism 8, the Religious Zionist party 5, Hadash-Ta'al 5, and Ra'am 5.
The Blue and White party, the Hendel-Tropper faction, and Balad all fail to cross the electoral threshold.
Testing various alternative scenarios also indicates that, for now, neither bloc holds a definitive path to a majority. The poll examined a scenario featuring the creation of two new right-wing parties - one led by Gilad Erdan, Ayelet Shaked, and Yuli Edelstein, and another led by Ofer Winter. The former would secure five seats, while the latter would fail to cross the electoral threshold.
A party headed by Erdan, Shaked, and Edelstein is expected to draw seats from Netanyahu, Eisenkot, Smotrich, Ben Gvir, and Liberman. Should such a party run, the Netanyahu bloc would drop to just 49 seats, while the opposition bloc (excluding Arab parties) would stand at 56.
In another scenario, where former MK Chili Tropper leaves his alliance with Yoaz Hendel to join Gadi Eisenkot, the electoral landscape remains largely unchanged - Eisenkot’s "Yashar" party gains one seat at the expense of Bennett and Lapid's Together party, leaving the overall balance of power completely intact.
The common denominator across all scenarios is that both Benny Gantz's Blue and White party and the newly formed party led by Yoaz Hendel and Chili Tropper consistently fall below the electoral threshold.