A Thursday night report by CNN revealed a more complex and less encouraging picture regarding Iran’s military capabilities, after over a month of airstrikes by Israel and the US.
According to three sources familiar with the intelligence details, Iran’s arsenal is far from destroyed, and large portions of it have not been hit at all.
According to the sources, about half of Iran’s missile launchers remain intact and operational. Many of them survived the strikes thanks to an extensive network of “missile cities" - underground tunnels and caves built over decades that are extremely difficult to detect or destroy from the air.
Estimates indicate that around 50% of Iran’s suicide drone arsenal remains intact, leaving the regime with thousands of UAVs capable of operating across the Middle East.
A significant portion of the cruise missiles belonging to Iran’s Navy also remain intact, largely because the US chose not to focus its strikes on coastal military assets. In addition, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps still possesses hundreds or even thousands of fast boats and unmanned vessels.
On Wednesday evening, US President Donald Trump claimed that Iran's ability to launch missiles and drones has been "dramatically curtailed, and their weapons factories and rocket launchers are being blown to pieces, very few of them left."
Though there has been a 90% drop in launches since the start of the war, intelligence indicates that this is due to a drop in usage, not a drop in ability.