Reports of strikes on senior Iranian leaders during Operation Roaring Lion have created a sense of triumph among many Israelis. However, researcher Idit Bar, who specializes in the Arab and Muslim world, cautions against optimism and urges the public to remain alert.
Speaking in an interview with Kan Moreshet, Bar warned that Tehran’s regime is far from surrendering and is actively waging a sophisticated psychological campaign aimed at Israeli society.
“We’re being sold certain illusions," Bar said. “The world may indeed be better without some figures in the Iranian leadership, but Persian strategic thinking is complex and deceptive. They understand exactly where our weak points are: our concern for human life and the West’s difficulty with long wars. They are counting on the idea that Israelis will want to return quickly to normal life - to restaurants, schools, and routine."
According to Bar, the main battlefield at the moment is psychological. “Iran has a well-developed psychological warfare system. They invest enormous resources in experts whose job is to frighten the Israeli public."
She says the effort extends directly into Israeli social media. “They circulate videos in Hebrew and operate networks of bots. Even on my own posts I noticed suspicious responses with patterns that look artificially generated. Their objective is clear: find issues that divide Israeli society and amplify them in order to weaken us from within."
Bar also stresses that Iran’s threat is not limited to missiles. She argues that it is rooted in a radical religious ideology that seeks to expand Shia influence. “Iranian leaders openly say: if Iran does not have security, the world will not be safe either. Their threats against the Strait of Hormuz show they are prepared to drag the global economy into a severe energy crisis if that is what it takes for the regime to survive."
As for the possibility of regime change in Iran, Bar doubts it can be achieved through outside force alone. “You can’t overthrow a regime from the air," she said. “Real change has to come from the Iranian people themselves. My biggest concern is that the Americans will grow tired, declare victory prematurely, and withdraw. If that happens, Iran will claim a psychological victory - something that could energize terrorist organizations across the region."