One of the greatest betrayals in modern history was the Sykes-Picot Agreement of 1916. Britain and France, with the stroke of a pen, carved up the Middle East and deliberately ignored the Kurds - the largest stateless people in the world. Woodrow Wilson spoke of self-determination, but the Kurds, a real people, were sacrificed on the altar of colonial convenience. That injustice has lasted more than a century.
The current Iran war has created a unique and perhaps unrepeatable opportunity to begin correcting that wrong.
Iran is being broken. Its regime is fighting for survival. The Kurdish regions in western Iran are already restless and could break away cleanly if central authority collapses. Syria is in chaos following the fall of Assad, and the Kurdish Autonomous Administration in the north and east already functioned as a de facto state with its own army, institutions and oil which Syria's government worked to destroy. Iraq’s central government in Baghdad is weak and corrupt, while the Kurdish Regional Government in Erbil enjoys near-independence and controls its own Peshmerga forces.
Three of the four countries that contain historic Kurdistan are now in various stages of fragmentation. That is an extraordinary alignment of circumstances.
A sovereign Kurdish state carved from parts of Iran, Iraq and Syria would be viable from day one. It would have territory, a population of roughly 15-18 million, significant oil reserves, water resources, and a proven fighting force that has already shown its worth against ISIS and other enemies. It would be a natural ally of the West and Israel - secular, tolerant, and democratic in spirit.
Turkey, of course, is the exception. Under Erdogan, Ankara will never voluntarily give up its Kurdish territory in the southeast. Erdogan suffers from megalomania and delusions of becoming a modern Sunni sultan or caliph. As a NATO member, Turkey enjoys protection that the other three states do not. Expecting Erdogan to act with honour or statesmanship is unrealistic. He is not big enough.
But three out of four is still a very good start.
For this to succeed, strong external guarantees are essential. The United States must provide security commitments - the Kurds have been betrayed too many times before. Britain and France, who created the original sin of Sykes-Picot, have a moral obligation to support the new state diplomatically and economically. Their involvement would carry historic weight and help legitimise the project internationally.
The benefits would be enormous. A sovereign Kurdistan would act as a buffer against Iranian and Turkish expansionism. It would be a stable, pro-Western democracy in the heart of the Middle East - a rare and valuable thing. It would finally give justice to a people who have suffered for a century at the hands of hostile central governments and who were invaluable in fighting ISIS.
The risks are real. Syria would refuse. Iran and Iraq would resist. Turkey would threaten. Arab nationalists would scream about “partition." But the alternative is to leave the Kurds forever at the mercy of regimes that have never treated them fairly - and that has never worked.
This is not utopian dreaming. It is a once-in-a-century opportunity born of war and collapse. Trump's refusal to involve the Kurds notwithstanding, the West, led by America, should seize it while the iron is hot. Britain and France should help atone for the original crime they committed in 1916.
The Kurds have waited long enough. History has given us the chance to right a great wrong. We should take it, meaning the USA and other moral Western states.
David Hersch is Chairman of SAIPAC, the South African Israel Public Affairs Committee. Former chairman of the South African Zionist Federation (Cape Council) as well as a former national vice-chairman of the South African Zionist Federation (SAZF). He is also former member of the South Jewish Board of Deputies (Cape Council). Retired businessman and broadcaster.
7 March 2026