Channel 12 News analyst Amit Segal has estimated that the gap between the haredi parties and the Knesset's legal advisor indicates that the Draft Law will ultimately not be passed.
"The assessment in the coalition, after several days of discussions between the haredim and the legal advisor of the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, is that the Draft Law will not pass. There's no way to bridge the gap ... between the legal advisor of the committee and the Council of Sages and Torah leaders," Segal noted.
"The haredim demand sanctions - but not on those currently obligated to enlist. Meaning, once the law is passed, we start again. The legal advisor of the Knesset says sanctions will apply to everyone, and this cannot be bridged."
Noting that this situation could lead to early elections, Segal added: "We are left with three possible dates for elections-June, September, or October. The haredim voted in favor of splitting the Arrangements Law, even though they haven't received the Draft [Law] yet."
The coalition's assessment is that, even at the critical moment in March, they will vote in favor of the budget, but there will be some kind of sanction component against the coalition, to advance the elections. It's very likely that the Draft Law will not pass, but the Budget and Arrangements laws will pass," he concluded.