A document written by the Hamas terror group's intelligence arm convinced the organization's late leaders, archterrorists Yahya Sinwar and Mohammad Deif, to carry out the massacre on October 7, 2023.
The full document was published by the Meir Amit Intelligence and Terrorism Information Center, and it reveals that Hamas' assessment was that Israel was not interested in toppling the terror group.
The assessment was written less than a month before the massacre, and was discovered during an IDF maneuver in the Gaza Strip during the war.
According to the document, "Israel relied for years on a strategy of preemptive strikes, but the strengthening of Hamas and Hezbollah caused it to shift to a pattern of short rounds of limited-intensity fighting."
According to the authors of the document, since Israel failed to achieve its objectives in 2008-2009's Operation Cast Lead, primarily the goal of toppling Hamas rule, it shifted to presenting vague objectives while focusing on managing the conflict and maintaining deterrence, aiming to weaken Hamas without defeating it.
They also noted that during 2021's Operation "Guardian of the Walls," Hamas achieved a psychological victory by linking the situation in the Gaza Strip with events in Jerusalem and Judea and Samaria, and provoking the Arab population in Israel as well.
The research further mentioned that Israel "failed to implement the 'war between wars' policy," and that a multi-front campaign is the greatest challenge to Israeli capabilities, which is why Israel prefers to avoid it and operate separately in each arena.
According to the writers, "Israel has not abandoned the idea of a preemptive strike, especially following the failure in Operation Guardian of the Walls, but it is not in a position to build a new deterrence equation. Therefore, it focuses on conflict management, risk management, and neutralizing threats. Thus, the recommendation to Hamas leadership is to prepare for a new opening strike that will trigger a new round of fighting, but also to lead an 'unexpected' confrontation that will break the recurring pattern and put Israeli leadership in a state of uncertainty."
This document was presented to the leaders of Hamas's military wing, and about a month later, they carried out the massacre, partly based on the document itself.