In just a few weeks, Americans will go to the polls to choose the next President of the United States of America. How many of them will do so in Israel - and does it make a difference?
The 2024 Presidential election in the USA has been deadlocked for more than a month, with both Vice President Harris and former President Trump unable to gain more than a few points on one another. The stalemate is present both in overall projections and several different surveys of "swing states," which have no clear predilection towards either party. Israelis with American citizenship, however, may have the chance to shift the balance.
Early in the course of the war, the US State Department announced that it estimated that there were nearly 500,000 Americans in Israel who might need to be evacuated if Israel did not turn the tide. In a more recent report, Axios estimated that the number has grown to 600,000 over the past year. There are an estimated 200,000 eligible US voters in Israel, olim and family members over the minimum voting age. In order to vote, they must register using the US overseas voter site. They can check the requirements and final dates for the state in which they must register - that is the last residence their parent or grandparent voted in.
In a direct election, this group would represent approximately one electoral vote, but the USA's electoral college system means that some votes are disproportionately impactful depending on the state where they are registered. With the race so closely tied, this is true even for states once thought to be secure seats for one party or the other - New York, for example, while still polling heavily in favor of the Democratic party, has moved nearly 10% more towards the Republican party than the 2020 election.
According to the US embassy in Jerusalem, "many US federal elections for the House of Representatives and Senate have been decided by a margin smaller than the number of ballots cast by absentee voters." In some states, this includes any descendants who are US citizens, even if they have never lived in the USA.
Given the historically narrow margins of the upcoming election and the drastic implications the results could have for Israel and the world, Americans living in Israel have the chance to make their vote count more than ever before.