The Cabinet
The CabinetAriel Hermoni/Defense Ministry

The heads of Israel's security system, including the IDF Chief of Staff and the head of the Shin Bet, reassured the political echelon in situational assessments over the last year that Hamas had no interest in a new military conflict with Israel, Channel 13 News correspondent Moriah Asraf Wolberg reported.

According to the report, during a situational assessment ahead of the Jewish High Holidays, a senior IDF officer presented the position that "Hamas in Gaza is concerned about civilian issues. Hamas intends to gain popularity through civilian measures - and not through a military operation."

The Shin Bet claimed at the meeting that the time had come for Yahya Sinwar, Hamas' leader in the Gaza Strip to calm tensions with Israel after he had attempted to keep the protests on the Gaza border fence going without success.

About a month before the Hamas massacre of October 7, Defense Minister Gallant said that "despite the security stability in Gaza - there are signals from Hamas that they are renewing the 'March of Return,' even if there is no real intention to carry it out."

A few months earlier, during Operation Shield and Arrow, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi said that Hamas was not interested in a military campaign, but understood that a campaign was approaching. The Shin Bet even added that Hamas was urging Islamic Jihad to stop fighting because it did not want to be dragged into a military conflict.

The day before Jerusalem Day, IDF military intelligence was certain that Hamas had seen what happened to Islamic Jihad during Operation Shield and Arrow and wanted to stay out of that fighting.

The Shin Bet agreed with this assessment and stated that Hamas was attempting to maintain stability in Gaza and its efforts to foment violence were focused on Judea and Samaria, where it is not in power.