The Likud party claimed Sunday evening that just 4,612 votes stood between Ra'am losing a Knesset seat to the right-wing bloc, a shift that could potentially alter Israel's political landscape.
However, a data analyst who operates the popular account "Little Moiz" on social media examined the claim and presented calculations suggesting that disqualifying that number of votes would not transfer a seat to the right-wing bloc.
Likud made its claim in response to a statement by Central Elections Committee Chairman Justice Noam Sohlberg regarding an investigation into suspected foreign funding intended to influence the elections to the 26th Knesset.
Sohlberg acknowledged that the allegations were serious and were being investigated by the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), but emphasized that the information currently available did not call the overall election results into question. He said that even if the suspicions were substantiated, they would not undermine the integrity of the electoral process or its results.
Likud criticized his remarks, stating, "It is extremely puzzling how Justice Sohlberg can say that these are very serious allegations of foreign funding while simultaneously determining in advance that they have no impact on the election results before the investigation has been completed."
The party added, "Just 4,612 votes separated a Knesset seat shifting from Ra'am to the right-wing bloc, something that would have completely changed the election results and the political landscape."
Likud demanded a swift and thorough investigation, arguing that until it was completed, "a dark cloud hangs over the election results in Israel."
The controversy comes amid allegations of election bribery in the Bedouin community in the Negev, including claims that fuel cards and other benefits were distributed in an alleged attempt to influence voters. Separately, the Shin Bet is investigating suspicions of foreign funding intended to influence the election.
However, Likud's numerical claim drew criticism. The data analyst known as "Little Moiz" published an analysis on X based on the vote count, the method used to allocate Knesset seats, and the surplus-vote agreements between parties.
"I saw reports claiming that 4,000 invalid Ra'am votes would transfer a seat to Likud. Well, that's not true! I checked twice!" he wrote.
According to the analyst, Likud's calculation failed to account for the surplus-vote agreement between Ra'am and the Joint List. Under that agreement, the two parties are initially treated as a combined list when allocating surplus seats.
The figures he presented showed that Ra'am and the Joint List received a combined 837,402 votes and secured 19 Knesset seats. By comparison, Shas and United Torah Judaism, which also signed a surplus-vote agreement, received a combined 612,115 votes and won 14 seats.
The analyst then examined several scenarios involving the disqualification of Ra'am votes. According to his calculations, disqualifying 4,000 votes would merely transfer a seat from Ra'am to the Joint List, without changing the distribution of seats between the political blocs.
He argued that only if 6,675 Ra'am votes were disqualified would the two Arab parties lose a seat collectively for the first time. Even then, the seat would go to Shas rather than Likud.
Under that scenario, according to his calculations, Ra'am would fall to seven seats, the Joint List would remain at 11, and Shas would increase to seven.
The analyst claimed that only the disqualification of 108,448 Ra'am votes would result in a seat being transferred to Likud.
Meanwhile, Justice Sohlberg said the investigation into the allegations would continue and that a joint team comprising the Shin Bet, police, and State Attorney's Office would be established.
The official election results are still expected to be published Wednesday and submitted to the President of Israel as scheduled.