What will happen if, as the elections approach, it becomes clear that the parties of the Change Bloc have no way to form a government without relying on Arab parties? This question was included in a poll conducted this week by the Maagar Mochot-Revavim Institute as part of Arutz Sheva’s Election Barometer.
The findings reveal significant differences among supporters of the Change Bloc parties. For the purposes of the survey, supporters of Yoaz Hendel and Yaron Zelekha’s Reservists-Economic Party were also examined. Opposition to partnership with the Arab parties is particularly widespread among supporters of Liberman, Gantz, Hendel and Zelekha. It is also common among supporters of Yashar and Bennett, although to a lesser extent. Among supporters of the Democrats, meanwhile, a large majority favors partnership with Ra’am, and a significant proportion also supports partnership with the Joint Arab List.
These differences in attitudes are also reflected in voters’ willingness to consider changing their vote.
Liberman and Hendel-Zelicha: Broad Opposition to Partnership, Some Willingness to Change Vote
Among supporters of Yisrael Beytenu and the Reservists-Economic Party, opposition to partnership with the Joint List is almost absolute, at approximately 97%. Partnership with Ra’am also faces widespread, though somewhat lower, opposition of nearly 80%.
A significant proportion would even prefer another election over such a partnership - approximately 29% in the case of partnership with Ra’am and approximately 62% in the case of partnership with the Joint List. In other words, this represents a genuine red line for a very significant proportion of these voters.
An even more noteworthy finding concerns a scenario in which, on the eve of the elections, it becomes apparent that a Change Bloc government cannot be formed without relying on the Arab parties.
In such a scenario, a significant proportion of these voters are no longer certain that they would maintain their current voting preference. Instead, they would consider voting for a party in another bloc, not voting at all, or simply do not know what they would do.
Among Liberman supporters, this group amounts to approximately 16%. Among Hendel-Zelekha supporters, the figure is even higher, at 24%. In other words, such a situation could leave roughly one-fifth of these parties’ supporters facing a significant dilemma over how to vote.
The Democrats: A Mirror Image
At the other end of the spectrum are supporters of Yair Golan’s Democrats. Seventy-eight percent support a coalition partnership with Ra’am, while only approximately 18% oppose it.
Attitudes toward the Joint List are more divided, with 45% opposing a partnership with it, although very few would prefer another election over such a partnership.
The difference is also evident when moving from voters’ positions in principle to the question of their behavior at the ballot box. Among supporters of the Democrats, no respondents said they were considering changing their vote if it became clear shortly before the elections that the Change Bloc could not form a government without the Arab parties.
In fact, these patterns correspond with statements made by the party leaders. While Liberman and Hendel have unequivocally declared that they will under no circumstances sit with the Arab parties, including Ra’am, Yair Golan has stated several times that the path to forming a government runs through partnership with the Arab parties.
In the Middle: Yashar and Bennett Supporters
Between these two groups are supporters of Gadi Eisenkot and Chili Tropper’s Yashar party and supporters of Bennett.
In both groups, opposition to partnership with the Joint List approaches 90%, while opposition to partnership with Ra’am stands at approximately 66%. Slightly more than half of respondents would also prefer another election over a partnership with the Joint List.
If it becomes clear that there is no way to form a Change Bloc government without the Arab parties, approximately 5% of supporters of these parties would consider voting for a party in another bloc or not voting at all, while a similar proportion do not know what they would do. In total, approximately 10% would consider changing their voting behavior.
Interestingly, the two parties recorded very similar figures across all the parameters examined.
These parties therefore occupy a middle ground between the two ends of the Change Bloc: Opposition to partnership is widespread among both groups and approaches the levels found among Liberman and Hendel supporters, while their willingness to change their voting behavior falls between the two extremes.
Leading Alternatives: Winter or Not Voting
In another question, all respondents were asked for their second voting preference if they were uncertain about their first choice.
Among those who said they might change their voting behavior if it became clear that the Change Bloc could not form a government without the Arab parties, the most common alternatives were Ofer Winter’s party or simply not voting.
Another noteworthy finding was that among Change Bloc supporters, approximately 7% of those who would prefer another election over forming a government in partnership with an Arab party are considering Winter’s party as their second choice.
By contrast, among those willing to compromise on forming a government in partnership with an Arab party, or who support such a partnership to begin with, Winter’s party did not appear at all as a second preference.
The Seat Test: Around Five Seats in Play
In terms of Knesset seats, voters equivalent to approximately one and a half seats within the Change Bloc would consider voting for a party in another bloc if it became clear that forming a government without the Arab parties was impossible.
Voters equivalent to nearly another seat would consider not voting, while another approximately three seats’ worth of voters do not know what they would do.
Altogether, this represents potential movement of approximately five seats’ worth of voters who would reconsider their choice under such a scenario.
Finally, it should be noted that according to all current polls, the Change Bloc has no possibility of forming a government without the participation of the Arab parties. If the picture remains unchanged, the findings of this survey indicate significant potential for votes to shift - and the full answers will become clear in a little over a month.