Iranian officials may be seeking to prolong the current escalation with the United States until the November midterm elections in an effort to weaken President Donald Trump politically, Politico reported, citing Arab diplomats who have maintained contacts with Iranian officials both recently and in the past.
According to the report, Tehran has decided to intensify attacks against American targets and Gulf states in a measured manner, based on an assessment that continued military pressure could place additional strain on the Trump administration and make it more difficult for the president to claim diplomatic or international achievements ahead of the elections.
Hamideh Adeezi, a researcher at the International Crisis Group, told Politico that “Iran would like to extend this situation of controlled escalation and retaliatory strikes until the midterm elections." He said that any further escalation by Tehran would likely come in the coming weeks, with the goal of increasing pressure on Trump and encouraging him to return to diplomacy.
“If Iran wants to escalate, it has to be in the coming weeks, so that Trump feels the pressure and wants to do something like a return to diplomacy," Adeezi said. “In my assessment, it appears that there will be further escalation."
Another Arab diplomat told Politico that the Iranian regime believes the combination of US economic sanctions and military pressure threatens its grip on power. “Iran feels that economic pressure together with military strikes could undermine its grip on power, and therefore it is trying to increase the pain and apply counter-pressure," the diplomat said.
The report also pointed to an earlier US strike in Iran this month, in which several wedding participants were reportedly killed, as contributing to the worsening atmosphere inside the country. According to the Arab diplomat, the incident has strengthened the position of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which is advocating a more aggressive response against the United States and its allies.