While the Jewish media is focusing on the viral and ever-spreading anti-Semitism around the globe, simple mathematical analysis shows that the assimilation of Jews in America will reach 80 percent by the year 2050. Let me explain.
Everyone connected with World Jewry is talking about anti-Semitism today. This is not surprising considering the acts of violence against Jews which are reported from around the globe on a daily basis. While angry demonstrations are organized against Israel, everyone knows that the venomous hatred expressed against the Jewish State includes Jews the world over as well. Just a short time ago, Diaspora Jews were enjoying a half-century spell of acceptance, social achievement, and prosperity amongst the nations, but October 7th changed all that. Today, an element of growing apprehension has become a part of Diaspora living. This cannot be denied.
For this reason, Aliyah activists are focusing much of their efforts to promote immigration on the increasing dangers of dwelling outside of the Land. While sometimes accused of being “Chicken Littles" in their doom-filled scenarios of the Diaspora’s eminent collapse, their message cannot be ignored. However, in my humble opinion, there is an even greater argument which must not be forgotten - the ever-increasing scourge of intermarriage which, though less talked about, is still very much with us and even expanding as Jews seek to find refuge in the anti-Jewish climate around them.
Let’s take American Jewry as an example. According to ChatGPT, from the years 1900 to 1920 intermarriage was only 2% of the Jewish population. A main reason for the low number is the fact that most of the Jews were new immigrants to America, with strong ties to religion and Jewish culture. The Jews grouped together in a strong ethnic community, such as the Lower East Side in Manhattan, where for many years Yiddish was more prominent than English. But as time passed and the culture of America infiltrated Jewish communities, intermarriage began to increase. After all, with the chance to become Americans like everyone else, why pass up the opportunity? Accordingly, in the early Sixties the intermarriage rate rose to 17%.
By 1972, the overall rate was a whopping 32%. Needless to say, the rate amongst secular Jews was higher, while amongst religious Jews the figure was much lower, resulting in an overall average of 32%. But because Am Yisrael is one nation, the religious could not hold up their hands and say, “That’s the problem of the secular - in our communities everything is under control."
Understanding this group responsibility, when the Lubavitch community arrived in America in 1950, they initiated their noble campaign of “frumkeit" education and “kiruv." But alas, the rate of intermarriage continued to rise and rise. By the year 2000 a sobering 47% of American Jewry married out of the faith. And when the 2020 celebrations kicked off around the USA, sixty-one percent of all Jews (72% amongst the secular) had gone over to the other side.
Before reaching a conclusion, a few important points need to be presented to the reader. Firstly, the over 2020 figure of 61% is much lower than the truth. This is because of the confusion in America regarding the question who is a Jew. I know from firsthand knowledge that when young Sarah meets young Sam in a Long Island bar, when the conversation gets around to family, Sarah is likely to say, “I’m Jewish," with Sam happily answering “I’m Jewish too," when in fact neither of them has a Jewish mother. It may be that one or both of their parents told them they were Jewish, neither knowing or caring about Jewish Law. B’kitzor (in short) it’s a big mess.
When the Pew Committee studies intermarriage they don’t consider the halakhic definition of who is a Jew. For them, a person who responds to a telephone survey and says that he or she is Jewish and married to a Jew, that’s proof enough. Therefore, in my opinion, the actual rate of intermarriage may have already passed 70%.
Another point is that the Chabad organization, in spite of their noble aspirations and dedicated labor, cannot possibly succeed in stemming the tide which will only continue to soar. It is simply impossible for an ethnic group, whether, Jewish, Italian, or Chinese, to preserve its ethnicity in the cyclone of gentile American culture surrounding them. It is only natural that ethnic groups in America, especially among the young, want to wear denim jeans, see the latest movies, and go to college with everyone else. And in the great American democracy where everyone is equal, why not marry a non-Jew? What difference does it make?
This melting-pot effect should not catch anyone by surprise.
The Gaon of Vilna was unsurpassed in Torah wisdom. He sent his students to settle the Land of Israel long before Herzl was born. He lived in the thriving Torah community of Vilna, where great yeshivot abounded, yet he wrote:
“Since the Beit HaMikdash was destroyed, our spirit and our crown departed, and only we remained, the body without the soul. Exile to outside of the Land of Israel is a grave. Worms (gentile culture) surround us there, and we do not have the power to save ourselves from the idol worshippers who devour our flesh. In every place, there were great Jewish communities and yeshivot, until the body decayed, and the bones scattered, again and again. Yet, always, some bones still existed, the Torah Scholars of the Israelite Nation, the pillars of the body - until even these bones rotted, and there only remained a rancid waste which disintegrated into dust - our life turned into dust."
In effect the Gaon of Vilna is saying: “Make no mistake - the Diaspora is a curse." For the Jewish People it is a no-win situation. That is the way the Exile is supposed to be. That is the way Hashem created it. Sometimes, for a period of a hundred years or two, Hashem gives us respite from the hardships, and we falsely believe that we have finally found refuge, but sooner or later the gentiles remind us that we don’t belong in their countries. Whether through persecution or assimilation our eventual demise is guaranteed.
Based on the increasing trend of assimilation over the past 100 years in America, ChatGPT forecasts that in the year 2050, barring any radical social change, intermarriage in the overall Jewish population will reach 80 percent. In the secular community it will be higher. My estimate, giving the balagan (confusion) in not knowing who is truly Jewish, is that intermarriage will reach 90%. The conclusion? Even setting the issue of anti-Semitism aside, there is no hope for the Jewish people in America.
Notably, the intermarriage rate in Israel is hardly 5 percent. You don’t have to be an Einstein to figure out where our future lies.