Col. (res.) Dr. Jacques Neriah, a former senior official in Military Intelligence and a senior researcher at the Jerusalem Center for Foreign Affairs and Security, warns against expectations for a political arrangement in the north.
According to him, the emerging negotiations between Israel and Lebanon are merely a symbolic move, lacking real capacity for implementation on Lebanese territory.
Neriah argues that the main obstacle is not the will of the government in Beirut, but rather its helplessness vis-à-vis the terrorist organization. “The Lebanese government may desire calm, but it is incapable of enforcing disarmament or withdrawal due to its paralyzing fear of Hezbollah."
He emphasizes that as long as Hezbollah has not been decisively defeated militarily, it will continue to prevent the Lebanese state from acting independently.
He also pointed to Israel’s own complexity. According to him, pressure from the US administration is preventing Israel from achieving a clear decision, leading to a situation of “stagnation" in southern Lebanon. “They talk about an agreement, but in practice the fighting continues," Neriah says, “and meanwhile Hezbollah remains strong and prevents any real change on the ground."
“Without a decisive military defeat of the organization, any document that is signed will be meaningless and will not lead to the desired implementation of removing the threat from the northern border," he concludes.