Colonel Richard Kemp, the former commander of British forces in Afghanistan, spoke to Arutz Sheva-Israel National News about the memorandum of understanding reached between the United States and Iran, the achievements of Israel and the US during the war, and the dangers that remain from the Iranian regime.
According to Kemp, the operations carried out by Israel and the United States before the agreement significantly weakened the Iranian regime’s military capabilities.
"The US and Israel devastated Iran’s navy, air force, air defenses and the IRGC," Kemp said. "They also inflicted further damage to the nuclear weapons program following the destruction that was dealt to it in the 12-day war."
However, he warned that the long-term impact of these achievements depends on whether Iran is allowed to rebuild what was destroyed.
"Of course, everything that is destroyed or damaged can be repaired. How quickly and whether that happens depends on the freedom to do so that is permitted by the US and Israel," he explained.
Asked whether the agreement represents a victory for Iran, as some critics have claimed, Kemp did not agree with that characterization but acknowledged that the regime will attempt to portray it that way.
"I wouldn’t say Iran was handed a victory by the US, although characteristically the ayatollahs claim this," he said. "Limited concessions were made, and potentially more substantial benefits were outlined in the MOU, all subject to very substantial concessions by Iran."
Kemp said the economic incentives offered to Tehran are significant, particularly the sanctions relief connected to Iranian energy exports, but argued that they must be weighed against the strategic goals Washington hopes to achieve.
"The financial benefits are obviously substantial, in return primarily for Iran reopening the Strait of Hormuz. But I would not say these are game-changing in comparison to what has theoretically been gained by the US," he said.
At the same time, he warned that even limited concessions carry a broader strategic cost.
"One of the major downsides to this agreement is that it will encourage Iran and jihadists everywhere," Kemp stated. "Their thinking always goes that if an enemy makes concessions of any type during a conflict, that signals they are weak and have lost."
He said that while such a price "may be worth paying in the interests of international trade and President Trump’s political challenges," Washington must take a tougher position in the next stages.
"It is really important that the US takes a much harder line over the coming negotiations," Kemp said, adding that this message is also relevant to deterrence against Russia and China.
Addressing the remaining threat from Iran’s military, including ballistic missiles, threats to international shipping, and the nuclear program, Kemp said Tehran continues to pose a danger.
"Some danger remains, of course, within the region," he warned. "Any further aggression from Iran in relation to the Strait or the wider region must be met by a disproportionate response; it will not be enough to trade blow for blow, America must show its military superiority."
Kemp also responded to remarks by US Vice President JD Vance criticizing Israeli officials over their criticism of the Trump administration’s policy.
"I don’t agree with the Vice President’s characterization of America as Israel’s only friend in the world," Kemp said. "A quick look around the global picture shows many countries that support Israel, including in the Middle East."
Addressing criticism of President Trump by Israeli politicians, Kemp noted that Israel is a democracy but urged restraint.
"Israel is a democracy with freedom of speech. Having said that, I believe politicians would be best advised to avoid intemperance and allow Prime Minister Netanyahu to set the tone," he said.
"He has more information at his fingertips than anyone else and should be trusted to make the right diplomatic moves for Israel in this extremely delicate situation."
Asked about the inclusion of Lebanon in the agreement despite Israel and Lebanon not being parties to the negotiations, Kemp stressed that Israel must preserve its operational independence.
"Israel should do whatever it needs to in Lebanon - and everywhere else - in defense of its citizens, its soldiers and its sovereignty," he said.
He acknowledged that this could create tensions as negotiations move forward.
"As negotiations proceed, that may create wider division between the US and Israel and will have to be handled carefully. But in my opinion, the IDF’s freedom of action in Lebanon must be a red line for Israel."
Looking ahead, Kemp said the best possible outcome would be the collapse of the Iranian regime and its replacement with a government that no longer threatens Israel, the region, or the West.
"Obviously, the best case is that this situation leads to regime change in Iran, with the current regime replaced by a government without aggressive intent against its neighbors in the region, the US, and the West in general," he said.
However, Kemp said he does not expect Tehran to genuinely accept the demands placed on it.
"I don’t anticipate the terrorist regime capitulating or acceding to Trump’s demands as set out in the MOU. If they do agree to what Trump wants, they can’t be trusted to adhere to any agreements," he warned.
"Therefore, absent regime change, we are likely to see the threat from Iran regenerating unless the US and Israel, or Israel alone, acts to prevent it," Col. Kemp concluded.