This brilliant phrase, attributed to Winston Churchill, perfectly describes Trump's impending deal with Iran. Victory seemed closer than ever. Following the strikes first in June last year and then in March of this year, the Iran lay in ruins: military infrastructure was destroyed; the IRGC's top command was eliminated; the Supreme Leader was killed; Iran lost two-thirds of its missile and drone production capacity, hundreds of launchers and 250 air defense systems; damage to the economy reached $140-150 billion; major factories, power plants and bridges were destroyed; more than 85% of Iran's petrochemical exports were disabled.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz deprived the IRGC of a much-needed flow of petrodollars.
Iran was little more than a depleted skeleton of a state without a functional leadership.
And at that moment, Trump obsessively wants to agree to a deal that lifts sanctions on the regime, unfreezes its assets, and allows oil sales. He agrees to play with a cheater he can never beat.
“The deal being floated with Iran seems straight out of the Wendy Sherman-Robert Malley-Ben Rhodes playbook: Pay the IRGC to build a WMD program and terrorize the world.
Not remotely America First.
It’s straightforward: Open the damned strait. Deny Iran access to money. Take out enough Iranian capability so it cannot threaten our allies in the region", Mike Pompeo wrote, and he is absolutely right.
Moreover, Trump reportedly insults Netanyahu, his main ally, ties his hands and prevents him from finally crushing Hezbollah, because Iran does not want this.
How unexpected was Trump's decision? Not very. A man with the instincts and methods of a businessman, Trump never had a strategic vision or understanding of the nature of those with whom he was dealing. He was always focused on quick success, spectacular performance, and theatricality at minimal cost. In some cases, this was beneficial, such as the move of the embassy to Jerusalem, the Abraham Accords and the kidnapping of Maduro, freeing the hostages. In others it resembled eccentric posturing with elements of farce and tragicomedy. This is what happened with the notorious Gaza Peace Council, with the “annexation" of Canada & Greenland, the renaming of the Gulf of Mexico, etc.
Trump was generous with compliments to those who least deserved them: Erdogan, Putin, Kim Jong-un, Xi, al-Jolani, and publicly humiliated Zelensky, who desperately needed US support.
He made decisions that undermined trust in the United States with unusual ease.
-In 2019, following a phone call with Erdoğan, he withdrew troops from Syrian Kurdistan, abandoning US allies who had played a decisive role in defeating ISIS.
-He refused to defend Saudi Arabia when Iranian missiles burned out ARAMCO (“That was an attack on Saudi Arabia, and that wasn't an attack on us").
-In his second term, he again sacrificed the Kurds of Syria, forcing them to submit to the jihadists of al-Jolani in Damascus.
-During a recent visit to Beijing, he froze arms sales to Taiwan to appease the CCP, even though Xi Jinping did nothing to benefit the US.
-He continued negotiations with Iran after the latter's barbaric shelling of American allies in the Persian Gulf.
Can all these countries trust the United States if each administration turns out to be worse than the last?
We can ask ourselves whether the latest turn towards Iran was a surprise?
Let's remember: after the start of mass protests, Trump publicly announced that he was coming to the aid of the rebels and that the regime would be overthrown. In the second stage, the idea of overthrowing the regime was forgotten, and four demands were voiced to Tehran:
*Nuclear renunciation
*Sharp reduction in ballistic missiles
*Iran's cessation of funding for its proxies in the Middle East
*An end to mass repression of protesters.
Time passed, and of these four demands, only one remained: the cessation of the nuclear program and the removal of enriched uranium. And now, we've reached a situation where Trump seems willing to compromise on this issue as well.
What will be the geopolitical implications of the deal as reported?
- Iran will emerge from the conflict as the clear and unconditional winner. It not only survived but managed to impose its terms on a most powerful nation and humiliate it, by forcing USA to pay reparations in the form of lifting economic sanctions and unblocking assets.
- Iran will strive for hegemony with renewed vigor and completely subjugate the region without encountering resistance. In the world, and especially in the Middle East, strength and only strength are respected.
- In Iran itself, repression will increase. Victors are not judged. Masses of people, recently ready to take to the streets, will bow their heads before the regime that has triumphed over America.
- Tyrannical regimes - in Ankara, Moscow and Beijing - will see how cowardly, fickle and unreliable the United States is. America will finally turn into a “paper tiger."
- Islamic fundamentalism will rise sharply. If Allah has granted the faithful victory in their war against the ‘Great Satan,’ then they must follow the ‘path of jihad’ with even greater zeal. This means even more terror, more violence, more aggressive demands and expansion.
- Israel will find itself even more isolated, as even those countries that had considered rapprochement with it will abandon the idea for the sake of survival.
Victory over the USSR in Afghanistan became the impetus for the rise of Islam worldwide. Iran's victory over the United States will take jihad to a new, triumphant level.
Does Trump think about all this? Of course not. Zeus has too much on his plate to ponder his actions and their consequences. Let others do that. Contemplating the future is beneath him. That's why he's Zeus.
He tries on Obama's peacekeeping toga and likes it.