Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx
As Iranian projectiles rain down on the kingdom, Saudi Arabia is once again revealing its true colors: a paper tiger that talks tough but folds when the mullahs strike. Just hours ago, two Saudi civilians were killed and twelve injured when an Iranian missile fragment slammed into populated areas near Riyadh and the Eastern Province. The official Saudi statement condemned the “failed and cowardly Iranian attacks" - strong words from a regime that spent the last 48 hours quietly begging Tehran for de-escalation while its citizens die.
While Israeli precision strikes set Tehran’s oil depots ablaze and American forces dismantle the IRGC’s command structure, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) is doing what he always does when real danger arrives: dialing Iranian officials, floating diplomatic “settlements," and warning that continued attacks might - just might - force him to let the Americans use their own bases. Riyadh even intensified backchannel talks with Tehran in recent days, according to multiple reports, pleading for calm as Iranian drones threaten the very desalination plants that keep Saudi cities alive.
MBS is paralyzed. His kingdom - the supposed leader of the Sunni world - now relies on Israeli and American firepower to survive the very threat he once claimed to confront. Iranian drones and missiles are targeting Gulf civilian infrastructure, yet Saudi Arabia’s response is limited to interceptions and strongly-worded press releases. Two dead Saudis in the last 24 hours. Damage to critical facilities. And still no decisive counterstrike. No public embrace of the only regional power actually winning this war: the Jewish State.
This weakness is not an accident. It is the direct result of MBS’s stubborn anti-Israel stance. For years he dangled normalization in front of Washington like a carrot, demanding impossible Palestinian Arab concessions while secretly hoping Israel would do the heavy lifting against Iran. Vision 2030 was supposed to modernize the kingdom. Instead, it has left Saudi Arabia militarily naked. Without Israeli intelligence, without Israeli air-defense technology, without the Abraham Accords alliance that actually works, MBS’s glittering cities are one Iranian barrage away from chaos.
The Iranian regime is collapsing in real time - black toxic rain falling on Tehran, Quds Force commanders liquidated in Beirut hotels, proxies starved of cash. This is the historic moment Saudi Arabia could have joined the winning side. Instead, MBS chooses diplomatic groveling. He still clings to the old Islamist reflexes that force Saudi imams to curse Israel from Mecca’s pulpits while Iranian missiles kill his own people.
The Jewish people have learned the hard way: weakness invites slaughter. Saudi Arabia is learning it right now. The only force capable of permanently neutralizing the Iranian threat is a full, public strategic alliance with Israel. Israeli Iron Dome derivatives could shield Saudi oil fields. Israeli intelligence already mapped every IRGC target now burning. Israeli special forces know how to finish what this war started. Joint naval patrols in the Gulf would end Houthi and Iranian harassment forever.
Normalization is no longer a luxury or a photo-op for MBS. It is an existential necessity. Drop the Palestinian Arab precondition theater. Drop the secret talks with a dying regime in Tehran. Stand openly with the only democracy in the Middle East that is actually defeating radical Islam. The Abraham Accords partners - the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco - are thriving. Saudi Arabia is bleeding.
MBS likes to project the image of a bold modernizer. Yet when Iranian drones cross his borders and kill his citizens, that image shatters. The real strongman is the one who recognizes friends and crushes enemies without apology. Israel has proven it is that partner.
The Jewish State is not waiting. Israel is winning this war. Saudi Arabia can join the victors - openly, proudly, and immediately - or it can continue its embarrassing dance with weakness until the next Iranian barrage proves, once and for all, that half-measures are suicide.