The geopolitical map of the Horn of Africa was redrawn in January 2026, marking a decisive end to Turkey’s uncontested maritime hegemony in the Indian Ocean. For over a decade, Ankara has leveraged its deep-rooted presence in Mogadishu to project power through its "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan) doctrine, a Neo-Ottoman maritime strategy designed to secure a permanent foothold from the Mediterranean to the Bab el-Mandeb strait.
However, Israel’s formal recognition of Somaliland’s sovereignty has shattered this regional monopoly, introducing a technologically superior adversary into a theater Turkey once considered its exclusive sphere of influence.
Turkey’s ambitions in Somalia are best exemplified by its massive 900-square-kilometer spaceport and ballistic missile testing facility currently under construction near Kismaayo. This project, alongside the established Camp TURKSOM in Mogadishu, represents the apex of Ankara’s long-term investment in the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS). By fostering a client-state relationship with Mogadishu, Turkey aimed to control the logistics and security of the Somali coastline, effectively locking out rivals from the northern Indian Ocean. The sudden entry of Israel into Hargeisa has effectively "flanked" Turkey’s position, creating a southern front that encircles the Iranian "Axis of Resistance" and poses a direct challenge to Turkish neo-Ottomanism.
The Port of Berbera in Somaliland has emerged as the centerpiece of this strategic recalibration. Unlike the Turkish-influenced ports in Mogadishu, which remain plagued by the instability of the FGS and the persistent threat of Al-Shabaab, Berbera offers a stable, high-capacity alternative for international trade and military logistics. Studies conducted following Israel’s recognition indicate that newly recognized states often experience a 25% to 40% surge in foreign direct investment within the first five years, a trend that is rapidly validating Berbera as the primary logistical gateway for East Africa.
For Israel, the geographical utility of a Somaliland footprint is described by analysts as having "disproportionate utility". Situated less than 160 kilometers across the Gulf of Aden from Houthi launch sites in Yemen, an Israeli presence in Somaliland allows for real-time monitoring and interdiction of Iranian arms smuggling routes that have fueled Red Sea instability for years.
The recognition has triggered a predictably sharp reaction from the "Axis of the Status Quo," including the African Union and the 57-nation Organization of Islamic Cooperation, both of which condemned the move as a threat to regional peace and Somalia’s territorial integrity. In Mogadishu, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has denounced the move as a "deliberate attack" on Somali sovereignty, fearing that the establishment of foreign military bases in a breakaway region will further destabilize the Horn.
Yet, the most telling aspect of this diplomatic crisis is the carefully modulated response from Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. While Erdoğan has been vocal in his condemnation of Israel, he has remained conspicuously silent regarding the role of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in facilitating this shift.
The UAE has been a primary architect of the Israel-Somaliland alliance, viewing it as a natural extension of the Abraham Accords and a necessary step for Red Sea security.Turkey’s refusal to criticize Abu Dhabi is a matter of stark economic realism; the UAE serves as a crucial economic lifeline for Ankara, having established a $10 billion investment fund and committed up to $50 billion in total investments to stabilize Turkey’s struggling economy.This financial dependence has forced Erdoğan into a state of strategic pragmatism, where he must satisfy his domestic Islamist base with anti-Israel rhetoric while simultaneously protecting the Emirati capital that prevents the total collapse of his own administration. This creates a unique opening for the Israel-UAE-Somaliland axis to consolidate power without facing meaningful material pushback from Ankara.
The security stakes are further heightened by the explicit threats from the Houthi movement. Leader Abdul Malik al-Houthi has stated that his group is "serious" about targeting any "fixed Zionist presence" in Somaliland, including military bases or logistical hubs. By expanding the "ring of fire" from the Levant to the Horn of Africa, the Houthis have inadvertently confirmed the strategic value of Israel’s new foothold. For Israel, a presence in Somaliland means strike capabilities are now within 45 minutes of Houthi launch sites and four hours from Iranian nuclear facilities-a vantage point that is geographically closer to Iran than Tel Aviv itself.
Amine Ayoub, a fellow at the Middle East Forum, is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco. Follow him on X: @amineayoubx