While Washington remains fixated on the Levant, the geopolitical map of the Red Sea was radically redrawn this week-not by missiles, but by a fountain pen in a Turkish boardroom. On December 23, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF)-controlled government in Port Sudan headed by General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan signed a "twinning agreement" linking their lifeline port to the Turkish Mediterranean hub of Mersin.
To the casual observer, it was a technical agreement on logistics and training. To the United Arab Emirates, it was a declaration of war.
The diplomatic fallout has been swift and brutal. Abu Dhabi has reportedly "frozen" its recognition of the Port Sudan authority's administrative decisions, a diplomatic rupture that signals the end of any pretense of neutrality. Intelligence reports suggest the UAE is now redirecting its logistics machine entirely toward the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is fighting the SAR for conrol of the country in the two-year long civil war, creating a bifurcated reality in Sudan: a Turkish-backed coastal state versus an Emirati-backed interior insurgency.
The Return of the "Blue Homeland"
The Port Sudan-Mersin pact is not a commercial endeavor; it is the resurrection of Turkey’s "Blue Homeland" (Mavi Vatan) doctrine. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long viewed the Red Sea as critical strategic depth for the neo-Ottoman project. In 2017, he terrified the Gulf monarchies by leasing Suakin Island-an Ottoman-era naval outpost just south of Port Sudan. That project stalled with the fall of Omar al-Bashir, but the ambition remained.
By twinning Port Sudan with Mersin, Ankara has secured a backdoor for military logistics. Mersin is a major Turkish naval hub. Integrating it with Sudan’s only functioning connection to the outside world allows Turkey to embed "technical advisors" and surveillance technology at the choke point of the SAF’s supply lines.
For General Burhan and the SAF, this is a survival play. Isolated by the West and losing ground in Darfur, the SAF has turned to the only power willing to defy the UAE: Turkey. But this lifeline comes with a heavy price tag. It reopens the door to the Islamist networks that Erdogan has championed for two decades, threatening to turn the Red Sea coast into a sanctuary for the very Muslim Brotherhood elements the UAE has spent billions trying to eradicate.
The Emirati Fury: A $6 Billion Scorn
The UAE’s furious reaction-diplomatically freezing the Port Sudan administration-is driven by a sense of betrayal and sunk costs. In December 2022, Abu Dhabi signed a preliminary $6 billion deal to develop the Abu Amama port, north of Port Sudan. That deal was supposed to anchor the UAE’s commercial empire in the Horn of Africa.
Burhan has effectively torn up that contract and handed the keys to Erdogan.
In response, the UAE is escalating. By delegitimizing the Port Sudan authority, Abu Dhabi is preparing the diplomatic groundwork to treat the RSF not as rebels, but as a parallel government-in-waiting. The reports of redirected logistics suggest a "Plan B" is in motion: if the UAE cannot control Sudan’s coast, it will ensure that the coast cannot control Sudan’s interior. This guarantees a protracted, balkanized conflict where commercial ports become militarized fiefdoms.
The American Blind Spot
The most alarming aspect of this "Red Sea Divorce" is the absence of the United States. While the State Department issues generic calls for ceasefires, Ankara and Abu Dhabi are actively reshaping the security architecture of one of the world’s most vital waterways.
The entry of Turkey into Port Sudan is a strategic defeat for US interests. It introduces a NATO member that frequently acts as a Russian conduit into the heart of the Red Sea security complex. Furthermore, it entrenches an Islamist-aligned military regime in Port Sudan, insulating it from Western pressure to transition to democracy.
If the US does not recognize the Port Sudan-Mersin deal for what it is-a neo-Ottoman naval foothold-it will wake up to find the Red Sea patrolled by Turkish drones and Emirati proxies, with American influence relegated to history.