Amine Ayoub is a Muslim policy writer and journalist from Morocco, and a fellow at the Middle East Forum.
The fall of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 was hailed as a turning point in Syria’s modern history. For the first time in decades, the Syrian people saw the possibility of rebuilding their shattered nation free from the grip of a dynastic dictatorship. Ahmed al-Shara, the rebel leader who seized Damascus, wasted no time in positioning himself as the architect of Syria’s rebirth. Foreign investment flowed in, sanctions were lifted, and the world rushed to welcome what was framed as a new era of hope.
But beneath this façade of renewal lies a dangerous question: what role, if any, will political Islam play in Syria’s future? At the heart of this question stands the Syrian branch of the Muslim Brotherhood, an aging, hollowed-out organization that refuses to dissolve even as every other faction has laid down its arms or disbanded. Its very survival represents not only a domestic challenge for Syria’s fragile leadership, but also a looming threat to Israel and the broader region.
The Brotherhood’s persistence is not a matter of religious devotion or ideological clarity. It is a symptom of an outdated political structure that has long outlived its purpose. The group is clinging to a dinosaur-like model, unable to adapt to a world that has moved past its grandiose visions of a global Islamic empire. The Brotherhood in Syria is dominated by aging cadres in their sixties and seventies, cut off from the realities of Syrian youth who have endured war, exile, and trauma. Unlike Hamas in Gaza or Ennahda in Tunisia, the Syrian Brotherhood has failed to reinvent itself. The result is a movement frozen in time, alienated from the very society it claims to represent.
For Israel, this matters enormously. The Brotherhood is not just another Syrian faction. It is the ideological parent of Hamas, a movement that slaughtered 1,200 Israelis on October 7, 2023, in the bloodiest single day in the nation’s history. Any revival of Brotherhood influence in Syria risks creating a sanctuary for militants who see Israel not as a neighbor but as an enemy to be eradicated. Israel cannot afford to ignore the possibility that the Brotherhood, marginalized for decades, might try to reinsert itself into Syria’s political landscape under the banner of opposition or reform.
The new Syrian leadership insists it has no Islamist agenda. Al-Shara himself has declared that both nationalist and Islamic ideologies have failed the region, signaling a pragmatic turn toward security and state-building. On paper, this sounds reassuring. Yet Israel cannot take these words at face value. History teaches us that Islamist movements thrive in moments of political transition, exploiting instability and discontent to claw their way back into relevance. Even if al-Shara disavows the Brotherhood, his refusal to force its dissolution leaves open a dangerous door.
This concern is heightened by the current geopolitical context. Syria and Israel are now engaged in direct talks, mediated by Washington, to reimplement the 1974 disengagement agreement on the Golan Heights. Under the proposed deal, Syria would demilitarize its side of the Golan in exchange for reconstruction aid, while Israel would secure its northern border against infiltration and weapons smuggling. For Israel, this is a welcome development.
Defense Minister Israel Katz has already vowed that the IDF will remain entrenched on Mount Hermon and across the Galilee to prevent another October 7. The buffer zones Israel has created inside Syrian territory reflect a sober lesson: security cannot be outsourced to promises, it must be guaranteed on the ground.
But these negotiations also raise a critical dilemma. Can Israel trust a Syrian leadership that allows the Brotherhood to linger? Can Israel accept a deal with Damascus while a movement ideologically tied to Hamas remains intact within Syria? The Brotherhood’s refusal to disband is not just an internal Syrian matter. It is a signal to Islamists across the region that, even after decades of failure, the organization can survive, waiting for the right moment to resurface. For Israel, that moment could mean a new front of instability along the northern border.
The lesson of the past two decades is clear. Wherever the Brotherhood survives, militancy follows. In Egypt, its brief rule under Mohamed Morsi gave cover to extremists before being crushed. In Gaza, Hamas evolved from a Brotherhood offshoot into a terrorist regime that wages endless war. In Jordan, its political arm has constantly tested the limits of the monarchy. Syria cannot be the next stage in this chain.
What Israel must demand is uncompromising clarity: the Brotherhood must dissolve, permanently and irreversibly. Just as Assad’s regime was uprooted, so too must the Brotherhood’s outdated, toxic ideology be removed from Syria’s political soil. Anything less leaves a time bomb ticking at Israel’s doorstep.