Haifa, Israel (July 17, 2025) - Negev farmers during the Byzantine period successfully established a thriving wine economy in the heart of the arid desert. However, the agricultural system they relied upon was vulnerable and entirely dependent on the collection and maximum utilization of rainwater.
These findings are based on new research conducted at University of Haifa and published in the scientific journal PLOS ONE. Using an innovative computational model, the researchers were able to reconstruct for the first time the scope of production, the conditions that led to the exceptional flourishing of the industry, and the reasons behind its ultimate collapse.
“Our research shows that ancient societies knew how to adapt to extreme climates and how dependent they were on natural resources and the ability to exploit them fully. This is an important insight for the current era of climate change as well,” said Prof. Guy Bar-Oz from University of Haifa, one of the study’s authors.
Wine was one of the most profitable and sought-after crops in the Mediterranean Basin throughout history. During the Byzantine period, from the fourth to seventh centuries CE, the wine industry reached its peak in the arid Negev region. Previous studies showed that Negev farmers used advanced methods of dryland agriculture — building terraces, drainage channels, stone dams, and storage pits — to collect rainwater and irrigate vineyards and fields. However, until now, no quantitative model has been developed to examine how much these methods improved yields and what vineyard production was like during drought years and extreme climate changes.
In the current study, conducted by Prof. Bar-Oz, Prof. Gil Gambash, research student Barak Garty from the School of Archaeology and Maritime Cultures, and Prof. Sharona T. Levy from the Department of Learning and Instruction in the Faculty of Education, all from University of Haifa, the team sought to unravel the secret of the resilience and durability of local agriculture and how the residents of the Negev managed to maintain a commercial wine production system in the heart of the desert.
As part of the study, the researchers developed a unique computer model based on a combination of archaeological, environmental, and climatic data from the Byzantine Negev. Details on the terrain, soil types, terrace systems, and rainwater collection were fed into the model, along with detailed information on precipitation amounts and evaporation. Using the simulation, the researchers estimated the amount of water that flowed to the vineyards, the grape yield the farmers were able to achieve, and how they coped with prolonged droughts.
“The model allows us to simulate different scenarios and examine what happens to the agricultural system when the climate changes or when precipitation decreases dramatically. We created a tool that gave us a near real-time glimpse into how the desert inhabitants planned their agriculture and responded to extreme situations,” the researchers explained.
The results show that rainwater harvesting methods and the use of terrace systems allowed Byzantine farmers to produce large quantities of wine even with less than 100 mm of rain per year. The study reveals how the planning of vineyards in wadis increased the chances of success for desert agriculture, which was highly dependent on precipitation levels. According to the model, a two-year drought led to a decrease of almost one-third in wine production compared to normal years. A prolonged drought of five years reduced production by more than 60 percent. The study also found that the recovery period of the agricultural system after prolonged dry spells could last more than six years.
“Our findings show how difficult it was to maintain agriculture in the desert and how vulnerable the system was during periods of prolonged drought. This is an important lesson for our time, highlighting the limitations of agriculture in arid regions and encouraging us to plan systems that will better cope with climate change,” the researchers concluded.