A new poll by Israel Hayom and Maagar Mochot showed that if elections were held today, the Knesset would be split evenly between the pro-Netanyahu and anti-Netanyahu blocs, with each blog winning 60 seats in the Knesset.
The poll also questioned how sure voters were of their vote, and what the results would be if they only include those who were 100% sure that they would vote. In such a scenario, the right-religious bloc would win 64 Knesset seats, with the percentage of Likud voters who go to the polls rising and the percentage of Arabs sure that they will vote low.
According to the poll, the Likud would win 32 Knesset seats, followed by Yesh Atid with 24. Religious Zionism would be the third-largest party with 13 seats, and fourth-largest would be National Unity with eleven seats.
Following the large parties are Shas with eight Knesset seats and United Torah Judaism with seven seats. Labor and Meretz are expected to win six seats each, with Yisrael Beytenu winning five seats. The United Arab List (Ra'am) and the Joint Arab List - now comprised of only Hadash and Ta'al - would receive four seats each.
The Jewish Home, Balad, Financial Freedom, and Hadar Mukhtar's party are all projected to fall short of passing the electoral threshold.
Fifty-eight percent of respondents said they will definitely vote, and another 21% said there is a high chance that they will vote.
According to the poll, the sector most determined to vote are Religious Zionists, 70% of whom said that they will definitely go to the polls on election day. Following them are secular Israelis 64% of whom are certain that they will vote. Among traditional Israelis 56% are sure that they will vote, while among haredim and haredi Zionists, the percentage is 51%. In the Arab sector, only 32% are certain that they will vote.
If only those who are certain they will vote show up, the Joint Arab List will not pass the electoral threshold, and the right-religious bloc will win 64 Knesset seats - more than enough to form a coalition.
When asked who the best candidate for prime minister is, 41% of respondents named Likud's MK Benjamin Netanyahu, while just 27% named Prime Minister Yair Lapid.
When asked for their opinions on Lapid's performance as prime minister, 35% said his performance was awful or very awful, while 37% said it was good or very good. Over a fifth (21%) said they do not know.
Most of the respondents (51%) said that the Arab Balad party should be disqualified, as per the Central Elections Committee's decision, but 31% said they do not know or gave other answers, and 18% said it should not be disqualified.
Of the respondents, 44% said that the appointment of MK Itamar Ben-Gvir to the position of minister would be legitimate, while 40% said that it would not be.
Forty-two percent of respondents said that they expect there will be another election, and just 31% believe that a government will be formed following November's election. Another 27% are not sure.