A new poll published on Wednesday morning, conducted by Menachem Lazar of Panels Politics, assesses the political situation following the announcement of MK Yifat Shasha-Biton that she intends to leave the Likud and join ex-Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar in his New Hope party. As previous polls have suggested, based on a then-theoretical scenario, the addition of Shasha-Biton significantly boosts New Hope’s chances at the next election.
According to the Panels Politics poll, if elections were to be held today, the Likud party would win 27 seats, down from the 36 it currently holds. The second-largest party would be New Hope with 20 seats, followed by Yesh Atid with 15 seats. Yamina would win 14 seats, significantly more than it currently holds but a drop from all recent polls conducted prior to the establishment of New Hope, which indicated it could win over 20 seats.
The Joint List (made up of the four Arab parties) would win 11 seats, also significantly down from previous polls which saw it winning as many as 16. Shas and UTJ would win 8 seats apiece, holding more-or-less steady, as they have done in previous polls too.
Yisrael Beytenu would win seven seats, Meretz would win five, as would Blue & White, confirming previous polls that also saw Benny Gantz’s party losing a huge amount of support.
Labor, Gesher, Jewish Home, and Otzma Yehudit would all fail to cross the electoral threshold.
On Tuesday night, also following Shasha-Biton’s announcement that she is jumping ship, Channel 12News published a poll of its own, with the results mostly similar to those obtained by Panels Politics. This poll saw the Likud winning 27 seats if elections were held now, and New Hope 21.
Yesh Atid would win 14 seats, Yamina 13, the Joint List 11, Shas and UTJ 8 seats apiece, and Meretz, Blue & White, and Yisrael Beytenu would all win 6 seats.
Channel 12 also examined the possibility that Gideon Sa’ar will succeed in attracting former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot to his party, and found that if he does, it would add one seat to the party, from 21 to 22 seats, with the Likud and Yamina remaining steady at 27 and 13 seats respectively, but Yesh Atid dropping to 12.
Another option Channel 12 explored was the establishment of a new party by Tel Aviv mayor Ron Huldai, which Huldai has more than hinted at on several occasions. The poll indicated that he could hope to win 4 seats if he went ahead with his plans.