A final poll by the Direct Polls institute estimated that the bloc led by Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu would win 53 Knesset seats, and gain a narrow majority of 61 seats if MK Naftali Bennett's Yamina party joined it.
According to Direct Polls, both Meretz and Labor may not pass the electoral threshold if more than a certain percentage of people vote. In addition, the battle between those two parties is expected to be one of the biggest dramas of the elections.
The poll gave the Likud party 32 Knesset seats, leading Yesh Atid, the Knesset's second-largest party with its 17 seats, by a 15-seat margin.
Surprisingly, Sephardic-haredi Shas and Yisrael Beytenu tied as the third-largest parties, with nine seats each. Yamina received eight seats in the poll, and four parties received seven seats each: New Hope, Blue and White, the Joint Arab List, and Ashkenazic-haredi United Torah Judaism.
The Religious Zionism party received five Knesset seats, followed by Labor, Meretz, and Ra'am (the United Arab List), with four seats each.
Divided into blocs, the "anyone but Netanyahu" bloc would win 55 seats, while his supporters would win 53 seats. Yamina's eight seats, and Ra'am's four, would tip the scales depending on who the parties decided to support.
The poll was conducted by Direct Polls Ltd. on March 17-18, 2021, and examined the views of 6,436 adult Israelis representative of the general population. It has an error margin of 1.2% and is estimated at an accuracy of 95%.