Poll: Likud 27, Sa'ar 21, Yamina 15

New poll shows ex-Likud MKs party surging with addition of Coronavirus Committee chairwoman and former IDF chief, as Yamina plunges.

David Rosenberg ,

Gideon Sa'ar
Gideon Sa'ar
Tomer Neuberg/Flash90

A new poll shows former Likud MK Gideon Sa’ar’s new party surging into second place, as Yamina plunges.

The poll was conducted by Panels Politics based on data collected by the internet survey company Panel4All, and was published by Ma’ariv Friday morning. The survey included 539 respondents and was conducted between December 9th to the 10th, and has a margin of error of 4.3%.

According to the poll, if new elections were held today, the Likud would remain the largest faction in the Knesset with 27 seats – down from the 36 seats it won in March.

That’s up from 25 seats in the previous Panels Politics poll, which was released on Wednesday.

The poll presented two different scenarios: one in which Gideon Sa’ar’s new party does not add any new prominent political or public figures to its list beyond the two MKs from the Derech Eretz party, who joined the new party this week, and a second scenario in which former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eizenkot and the chairwoman of the Knesset Coronavirus Committee Yifat Shasha-Biton (Likud) both join Sa’ar’s new faction.

The two are reportedly considering joining Sa’ar’s party, with Shasha-Biton looking to be tapped for the second spot on the list after Sa’ar.

If MK Shasha-Biton and Eizenkot join Sa’ar’s party, the new faction would receive 21 seats in the next Knesset, making it the second largest faction.

Yamina would receive 15 seats in this scenario – three times what it currently has, but a significant drop from previous polls which showed the party winning as many as 24 seats before Sa’ar split from the Likud.

Yesh Atid-Telem would fall to 11 seats in this scenario, while Blue and White would sink to just six seats.

Yisrael Beytenu is projected to maintain its seven seats if Eizenkot and Shasha-Biton join Sa’ar’s party.

If neither Shasha-Biton or Eizenkot join Sa’ar, the new party would win 16 seats, as would Yamina.

Yesh Atid-Telem would receive 13 seats in this scenario, while Blue and White would win seven.

Yisrael Beytenu, in this scenario, would receive eight seats.

The Joint Arab List is projected to win 12 seats in either scenario, while Meretz would win five seats in either scenario.

Among the haredi factions, neither party would be affected by Shasha-Biton or Eizenkot’s inclusion in Sa’ar’s new party, with Shas receiving nine seats in both scenarios, and United Torah Judaism holding steady at seven seats in both cases.

Labor, Gesher, Jewish Home, and Otzma Yehudit all failed to cross the 3.25% electoral threshold in either scenario.

If Shasha-Biton and Eizenkot do not join Sa’ar’s new party, Labor is projected to receive 1.0% of the vote, compared to 0.7% for Gesher, 0.7% for Otzma Yehudit, and 0.6% for the Jewish Home.