Even if terrorists refrain from more attacks such as last weekend's massive barrage of rockets and mortar shelling on Gaza communities, the original plan of completing the evacuation by mid-August is becoming increasingly unrealistic, according to media defense analyst Amir Oren.
Oren wrote that the mounting obstacles to the complicated operation will stretch out the process at least until the start of the school year, September 1, and possibly until the beginning of the Jewish New Year on October 2.
Among new IDF strategies to overcome opposition to the evacuation is to use Air Force helicopters, whose pilots can report to the police on attempts to block roads from Gaza.
The army also will seal off the area south of the route of the oil pipeline from Ashkelon. However, police will not try to arrest the thousands who are expected to violate orders to keep out of restricted areas. Physical opposition to a policeman will be the minimum grounds for arrest, Oren wrote.
Police officials have unsuccessfully tried to infiltrate among opposition elements in order to get information on planned disturbances. Most of the police force is to be concentrated in the Gaza area, leaving the rest of the country open to the possibility of country-wide disturbances. Police officials are hoping that motorcycles and IDF helicopters will allow them to deter protestors, but it is doubtful if there is enough manpower and equipment.
Defense officials also are struggling with a campaign justifying the evacuation, which has aroused opposition among policemen as well as civilians. The police already have indicated it will not force policemen from Judea, Samaria and Gaza (Yesha) to participate in the operation.
One of the explanations for the evacuation given to defense forces is that it will reduce terror, but almost all security officials have said that regardless of when the evacuation ends, terrorism will return and will be more sophisticated.
Another major problem in the evacuation timetable is the Palestinian Authority (PA) parliamentary elections scheduled for July 17, several days before the start of the evacuation. PA sources today said they may try to postpone the elections, which the ruling Fatah party fears will allow Hamas terrorists to gain power. The election campaign could cause civil strife and would complicate the IDF plan to place soldiers throughout Arab areas to prevent attacks during the evacuation.
Oren wrote that the mounting obstacles to the complicated operation will stretch out the process at least until the start of the school year, September 1, and possibly until the beginning of the Jewish New Year on October 2.
Among new IDF strategies to overcome opposition to the evacuation is to use Air Force helicopters, whose pilots can report to the police on attempts to block roads from Gaza.
The army also will seal off the area south of the route of the oil pipeline from Ashkelon. However, police will not try to arrest the thousands who are expected to violate orders to keep out of restricted areas. Physical opposition to a policeman will be the minimum grounds for arrest, Oren wrote.
Police officials have unsuccessfully tried to infiltrate among opposition elements in order to get information on planned disturbances. Most of the police force is to be concentrated in the Gaza area, leaving the rest of the country open to the possibility of country-wide disturbances. Police officials are hoping that motorcycles and IDF helicopters will allow them to deter protestors, but it is doubtful if there is enough manpower and equipment.
Defense officials also are struggling with a campaign justifying the evacuation, which has aroused opposition among policemen as well as civilians. The police already have indicated it will not force policemen from Judea, Samaria and Gaza (Yesha) to participate in the operation.
One of the explanations for the evacuation given to defense forces is that it will reduce terror, but almost all security officials have said that regardless of when the evacuation ends, terrorism will return and will be more sophisticated.
Another major problem in the evacuation timetable is the Palestinian Authority (PA) parliamentary elections scheduled for July 17, several days before the start of the evacuation. PA sources today said they may try to postpone the elections, which the ruling Fatah party fears will allow Hamas terrorists to gain power. The election campaign could cause civil strife and would complicate the IDF plan to place soldiers throughout Arab areas to prevent attacks during the evacuation.