It is all but guaranteed that no matter what, there will not be a referendum on the disengagement issue. The reason is because the Labor Party has promised to quit and topple the government if such an idea is approved by the Knesset. Prime Minister Sharon, too, has intimated that he would rather have new elections than a referendum.



However, the question of whether the Knesset will vote in favor of holding a national referendum on the issue or not is still pending.



This question is dependent on whether Rabbi Ovadiah Yosef changes his mind, as well as on the votes of about 13 Likud MKs. Rabbi Yosef, the spiritual leader of the Shas Party, does not favor a referendum, and instructed Shas MK Nissim Ze'ev to vote against it in the Law Committee yesterday.



Many pro-referendum leaders continue to meet with Rabbi Yosef, however – including none other than Finance Minister Binyamin Netanyahu last night. Netanyahu caused a mini-storm within the Likud when it was reported that his efforts were directed not at convincing Shas to support the budget, but at supporting a referendum.



If Rabbi Yosef changes his mind and instructs the 11 Shas MKs to vote for the plebiscite, this will still give the pro-referendum forces only some 50 votes in the Knesset – unless the Likud faction decides to impose party discipline and compel all the MKs to vote in accordance with the will of the Likud Central Committee. The Committee recently voted that "all MKs, and the faction as a whole, must work towards passing legislation to hold a national referendum on the disengagement."



Susie Dym, spokesperson for the grassroots organization "Cities of Israel," says that this coming Monday, before the Knesset vote, the Likud Knesset faction can make a decision to impose party discipline on this issue. "Central figures in this effort," she told Arutz-7 today, "are Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom, Health Minister Danny Naveh, and coalition whip Gideon Saar. If they agree that party discipline must be imposed, then they can convince the others. That's why there must be grassroots efforts to call them and make them aware of what the 'people at home' feel."



The fax numbers of the above politicians are:

Gideon Saar - 02 (+9722, from abroad)-649-6114

Minister Silvan Shalom - 02-530-3506

Minister Danny Naveh - 02-678-7662



On Wednesday, the Knesset will begin a marathon of voting on the budget and its accompanying Arrangements Bill. If the budget bill does not pass, new elections must be held within 90 days.



Two large pro-Land of Israel demonstrations are planned for next week, outside the Knesset.