The new coalition of Likud, Labor and United Torah Judaism is to be presented on Monday, giving Prime Minister Ariel Sharon a slim Knesset majority of 64. Other individual MKs are also expected to back the coalition, at least tacitly, and Meretz/Yachad's 6 MKs can also be counted on to help thwart no-confidence motions in the future.
For tomorrow's vote, thirteen Likud MKs who oppose the government's plan to eradicate 25 Jewish communities in Gaza in southern Israel and in northern Samaria are threatening to vote against the new ministerial line-up. In the past, however, they have buckled under pressure from Sharon and have backed down from their threats to vote against the government.
In short, though a majority of the entire Knesset - and not just a majority of those voting - is required to approve the new coalition and ministerial line-up, it appears that this will not present a problem for Sharon.
The government also faces no-confidence motions submitted by Shas and National Religious Party tomorrow. Here, as well, the motions require 61 MKs in order to pass, and Sharon is not worried. Many of the Likud "rebels" – others call them "loyalists" for remaining true to the Likud platform of not dismantling Jewish communities – have said that they do not wish to see new elections, which toppling the government would entail.
The Meretz/Yachad party, which opposes the government's proposed budget, announced yesterday that it would back the government "if it becomes clear to us that there are not enough votes to approve the coalition with UTJ and Labor." A party spokesman explained that the party does not want to give Sharon "an excuse" not to carry out his disengagement plan.
Leaders of the Shinui party tried this morning (Sunday) to persuade Meretz/Yachad party leader Yossi Beilin to reverse his position and instead join forces to defeat the government and force new elections. Shinui's reasoning is that new elections would increase the chances for a secular coalition government in the future. The anti-religious party dropped out of the former coalition after Sharon fired its five cabinet ministers for voting against the proposed 2005 budget.
"The 'disengagement government' is a sad one for the people of Israel," said Likud MK Ehud Yatom, one of the opponents to the government plan. "This will be the first time in our history we are to return part of our heritage without receiving anything in return. This is a dangerous precedent, and even worse, it has grave implications for the future." He added, however, that the "loyalists" will not decide until Monday how they will vote.
Currently, MK Yosef Lapid (Shinui) is the official Opposition Leader – giving him the ironic right to speak for Shas and the NRP, whose religious platforms he is outspokenly against. If more than half of the opposition MKs sign that they support Shas chairman Eli Yishai, however, Yishai would receive the honor. The signatures may be submitted to Knesset Speaker Ruby Rivlin by tomorrow afternoon.