Last night (Monday), for the first time, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon lost a no-confidence vote in the Knesset - and it happened twice. Neither vote resulted in the toppling of the government, however, as 61 MKs - an absolute majority of the Knesset - are required for such a move.



In July of this year, two no-confidence motions ended in ties, but last night, a Shas Party motion won by a 51-49 margin, while a similar proposal by the Am Echad faction of Labor was passed by 50 to 47. A third motion, submitted by Labor, failed to pass by one vote.



All three no-confidence motions cited the increase in poverty in 2003, as publicized in last week's official report, as the reason to topple the government.



The immediate result of last night's votes, together with Shinui's threat to quit the government, is Sharon's realization that the government appears to be headed for a crash. He therefore ordered an immediate start to coalition negotiations with the Labor Party.



In an ironic twist, the Yachad-Meretz faction abstained in the no-confidence votes, despite its long-time enmity for Ariel Sharon in general and the government's economic policies in particular. Party leader Yossi Beilin admitted that he would not be able to sleep well at night following the vote, "but these are special circumstances." He explained that he did not wish to endanger the disengagement plan, under which Sharon plans to expel 8,500 Jews from 25 communities in northern Samaria and Gush Katif.



Adding irony to irony, the government would not have fallen even had Meretz voted against it, as the total votes against the government would have fallen short of the magic number 61.



The National Religious Party (NRP) and United Torah Judaism (UTJ) voted against the government.



Sharon's next hurdle is the budget vote, scheduled for tomorrow (Wednesday). The NRP said yesterday morning it would support the government's budget proposal, but in the evening made an about-face and threatened to vote against it. MKs Slomiansky and Orlev explained that they object to the Dovrat Program for education reforms, which call for changes such as a five-day school week.



UTJ, on the other hand, has an agreement to receive 290 million shekels for its yeshivot and schools, and is therefore certain to support the government in the budget vote. The sum to be given to UTJ is less than the amount it lost in the budget cuts of the past two years, according to Prime Minister Sharon.



The 11-MK Shas Party - almost as large as the NRP and UTJ together - is still undecided regarding the budget vote. Its MKs have stated that if some of its demands are met, such as those on behalf of young couples, one-parent families, and the basket of government-subsidized medicines, it would abstain in the vote. Negotiations with Shas are not progressing apace, however.



The extreme-left Shinui party appears steadfast in its plans to vote against the budget, despite the automatic consequences of being booted out of the coalition. Likud MK Gila Gamliel and Shinui's Ettie Livni are working on a compromise proposal to keep Shinui in the government.



Even if the budget is defeated in its first reading tomorrow, the government will not immediately fall. Sharon has said, however, that he will fire any minister who votes against the budget, including Shinui party leader Yosef Lapid. This would force either new elections, or a new coalition with Labor and religious parties. The matter of the religious parties' objection to the disengagement plan must still be addressed, however.