Binyamin Netanyahu announced two weeks ago that if a referendum on the disengagement/evacuation plan from Gush Katif and northern Shomron is not held, "we will not be able to remain in the government." He was referring to himself and to Ministers Livnat, Katz and Naveh, and set a deadline of two weeks. The latter three ministers withdrew from the ultimatum a few days later, leaving Netanyahu alone in the fray and the entire political establishment wondering whether he, too, would find a ladder with which climb down from his threat.



Yesterday, he found it: The Likud Knesset faction not only officially called on him to remain in the Cabinet, but also approved recommendations allowing individual party MKs to submit referendum bills. Prime Minister Sharon said he personally objects to the idea, but would not "punish" MKs who continue to support such plebiscites. In addition, a referendum bill will be transferred to the Knesset Law Committee. It is clear to all, however, that without Sharon's active support, a referendum has no chance of being passed in a Knesset vote.



With the NRP's resignation from the government as of this evening - the decision was made by the party leadership last night - Sharon is left with a limping minority government of only 54 MKs. This number includes 17 MKs of his own party who actively oppose the disengagement plan, and who will not support him on votes related to this issue. The government's two main goals, therefore, are endangered: the 2005 budget, which is strongly opposed by Labor, and the disengagement, which has the support of the left-wing but not of the entire Likud.



Several alternatives present themselves: Sharon could bring Labor into the government; Labor could support him from without - in exchange for changes in the budget and possibly early elections; the government could be toppled in a no-confidence motion; or Sharon himself could dissolve the government and call early elections.