The disengagement plan is likely to pass its first step by a large majority next week, but it faces a long and rocky road.



Labor party leaders are working to ensure a solid majority for the bill’s first reading Tuesday. Labor party chairperson Dali Itzik said she and several colleagues will try to convince representatives of the religious Shas and United Torah Judaism parties to support the plan.



However, the bill must pass two more readings and then will face the obstacle of financing. Prime Minister Ariel Sharon this week upped the ante and promised increased compensation to the Jews whom he wants to evacuate from 25 Jewish communities. The proposed 2005 budget already takes into an account a larger than planned deficit, leaving no room for added expenditures.



The budget will be brought to a vote on November 4, and Likud “rebel” Ruby Rivlin said there is a good chance the government will topple with a non-confidence vote.



Rivlin decided against allowing no-confidence motions next week. “If I knew there would be a real chance for a no-confidence motion to pass, I would have certainly let it be submitted,” he said. “I just wanted to spare the Knesset from the nuisance of an unnecessary three-hour debate.” The vote on the first reading of the disengagement bill will follow a marathon session that could last up to two days.



Regardless of Labor party support, most members are forecasting elections by spring, long before the

dismantling of the communities is to take place.