It appears that Prime Minister Sharon's strategy is working. Holding coalition negotiations with several opposition parties at once - Labor, United Torah Judaism and Shas - he has caused them all to be sufficiently unsure of where they stand that their opposition to him has become weak and ineffective. Sharon survived four no-confidence motions presented in the Knesset today by comfortable majorities, and he only has one more week to go - including one more day of no-confidence motions - before the Knesset breaks for its summer recess.
Many MKs of Shas, for instance, were not present for the votes today, citing "Tisha B'Av preparations" as their excuse. In United Torah Judaism, four of five MKs voted against the government in the first vote, but only one voted against in the next vote, and for the third and fourth votes they were no longer there. Labor, continuing its two-sided game of the past few weeks, proposed one of the no-confidence motions, but it was rejected by a comfortable margin.
Political commentators see three possibilities arising from the coalition negotiations presently underway. One is that the Likud negotiators reach an agreement with Labor and the hareidi parties, thus forcing out Shinui, which has vowed never to sit in the same government as a hareidi party. Another possibility is that in fact Shinui reneges on this principle, thus obviating the need to bring in Labor. This possibility will neutralize much internal Likud opposition to Sharon's policies; Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom led a large show of strength last night, demonstrating that many within the Likud simply do not want to share the government with Labor.
A third possibility that is considered very likely is that Sharon will not succeed in forming a new government, and that new elections will be called. Some analysts feel, as indicated above, that the Prime Minister is merely trying to buy time by waging the current negotiations, in order that he remain untoppled and in power for the duration of the upcoming recess.
Many MKs of Shas, for instance, were not present for the votes today, citing "Tisha B'Av preparations" as their excuse. In United Torah Judaism, four of five MKs voted against the government in the first vote, but only one voted against in the next vote, and for the third and fourth votes they were no longer there. Labor, continuing its two-sided game of the past few weeks, proposed one of the no-confidence motions, but it was rejected by a comfortable margin.
Political commentators see three possibilities arising from the coalition negotiations presently underway. One is that the Likud negotiators reach an agreement with Labor and the hareidi parties, thus forcing out Shinui, which has vowed never to sit in the same government as a hareidi party. Another possibility is that in fact Shinui reneges on this principle, thus obviating the need to bring in Labor. This possibility will neutralize much internal Likud opposition to Sharon's policies; Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom led a large show of strength last night, demonstrating that many within the Likud simply do not want to share the government with Labor.
A third possibility that is considered very likely is that Sharon will not succeed in forming a new government, and that new elections will be called. Some analysts feel, as indicated above, that the Prime Minister is merely trying to buy time by waging the current negotiations, in order that he remain untoppled and in power for the duration of the upcoming recess.